Scotland's hopes of reaching the World Cup knockouts for the first time ever hang in the balance ahead of their final group game versus Brazil. Steve Clarke's side got their tournament off to the perfect start with a 1-0 win over minnows Haiti. But a disappointing 1-0 defeat to Morocco in their second game means there is work still to be done against Brazil to ensure a place in the knockout rounds.
Carlo Ancelotti's side looked much improved in their 3-0 win over Haiti and will not take their foot off the gas as they look to finish above Morocco and top Group C.
Scotland's qualification scenarios
Scotland can still top the group and qualify for the knockouts if they manage to beat Brazil, while Morocco lose to Haiti. Even if Morocco win, three points for Scotland would see them finish second and full of confidence heading into the round of 32.
A draw would almost certainly be enough for Scotland to qualify, too, as it would take them to the four-point mark, which is expected to be comfortably enough to finish among the eight best third-placed teams.
However, if Scotland lose, their World Cup fate will be in the balance, with the Tartan Army facing a nervy wait as the rest of the final group games play out. Currently, Clarke's side sit second in the mini league of third-place teams with a goal difference of zero, but will need to avoid a heavy defeat if they are to remain within the top eight third-place teams.
According to Opta, the chances of Scotland progressing with a goal difference of -1 would be 84 per cent. However, a 2-0 loss to Brazil would reduce those odds to 63 per cent, while a three-goal defeat sees their chances tumble to 42 per cent.
Tiebreaker rules
For the first time since 1970, goal difference will no longer be used to separate sides who finish level on points in the group stage at the World Cup. Instead, the head-to-head record between teams will now be used as the first tiebreaker, which is why Scotland will finish below Morocco if both teams end up on four points.
Possible opponents in the Round of 32
If Scotland upset the odds and win their group, they would face the runner-up from Group F on Monday, June 29 in Houston (6pm). The Netherlands, Japan or Sweden are all possible opponents.
A second-place finish means they would face the winners of Group F. Again, the Netherlands, Japan or Sweden are all possible opponents in a tricky group to predict. That match would take place on Tuesday, June 30 (2am) in Guadalajara.
Finishing third, perhaps the most realistic scenario, means Scotland could face the group winner from Groups A, E, and I if they finish among the top eight third-place teams. With the three possible opponents (likely Mexico, Germany, or France) there are also three possible dates. They would play on either Monday, June 29 in Boston (v Group E winners, 9.30pm), or Tuesday, June 30 in New Jersey (v Group I winners, 10pm), or on Wednesday, July 1 in Mexico City (v Group A winners, 2am).
