This Sunday marks a pivotal moment for several contenders in the Four-Year-Old Classic Series, as they gather for an 11-race card at Sha Tin. The highlight of the event is the Group Three Centenary Vase Handicap, scheduled for 8.05am over a distance of nine furlongs.
Numbers: A Promising Contender with Proven Track Record
Among the participants, Numbers stands out as a leading hope for the upcoming BMW Hong Kong Derby. Since his arrival from Australia in August, this Frankie Lor-trained horse has demonstrated significant potential. His debut performance in December saw him secure a close third place behind Helene Feeling over nine furlongs at Happy Valley, showcasing his early promise.
Building on that momentum, Numbers delivered an impressive victory just two weeks later. He led from start to finish in a 10-furlong race at Sha Tin, defeating competitors such as Winning Wing. These strong showings have firmly positioned him as a key player in the next stages of the Four-Year-Old Classic Series.
Experience and Strategy in the Centenary Vase
With a background of 12 races in Australia, including two wins and six placed finishes—notably a runner-up spot in the Group One Queensland Derby—Numbers brings a wealth of experience to the track. This seasoned approach could prove crucial in the Centenary Vase, where he benefits from a favourable weight concession compared to his six rivals.
The competition includes seasoned campaigners like Straight Arron, Beauty Joy, and Encountered, as well as last year's winner, Chancheng Glory, who has struggled with 11 subsequent unsuccessful runs. Another notable rival is Speed Dragon, the recent Group Three January Cup winner at Happy Valley, though he previously finished behind Numbers at the city track and faces challenges at Sha Tin.
Historical Trends and Predictions
Recent history favours Numbers, as three of the last five winners of the Centenary Vase have triumphed from bottom-weight positions. Given his current form and strategic advantages, it would be a disappointment if he does not add another victory to this trend. His ability to stay strong over distances and adapt to different tracks makes him a formidable opponent in this high-stakes race.
As the Four-Year-Old Classic Series progresses, with the Classic Cup on March 1st and the BMW Hong Kong Derby on March 22nd, Numbers' performance in the Centenary Vase could set the tone for his campaign. Fans and analysts alike will be watching closely to see if his experience and recent successes translate into a win at Sha Tin.
