The Curious Case of Josh Hazlewood: Australia's Unlikely Jonah
Contrary to conventional wisdom, Josh Hazlewood's hamstring injury might actually boost Australia's chances in the first Perth Test. The statistics reveal a startling pattern: when the Tamworth-born bowler is absent, Australia's performance dramatically improves.
Since his Test debut in December 2014, Australia have won 39 out of 76 matches (51%) with Hazlewood, losing 24 (32%). However, in the 31 Tests without him, their record transforms to 22 victories (71%) and just five defeats (16%). The Ashes numbers are even more compelling - with Hazlewood, Australia win 50% and lose 33% of matches, while without him, they achieve a 71% win rate with only one loss in seven games.
Cultural Indicators: From Rap Music to Literary Prizes
An unusual correlation emerges when examining cultural trends and Ashes outcomes. For the first time in 35 years, there were no rap songs in the Billboard Top 40 during the last week of October - potentially good news for England.
Before rap entered the mainstream with Sugarhill Gang's Rapper's Delight in January 1980, England had lost 38% of Tests against Australia, winning 33%. Since then, their record has deteriorated to 50% losses and only 27% victories. The period beginning with Biz Markie's Just a Friend charting in February 1990 saw England's performance worsen further, with defeats in 55% of Tests and a win percentage of just 26%.
The Booker Prize provides another fascinating omen. David Szalay's win continues a trend of authors with the letter Y in their names winning the prize in Ashes years starting in Australia - following Stanley Middleton (1974), Thomas Keneally (1982), Kingsley Amis (1986) and Yann Martel (2002).
This pattern has generally spelled trouble for England, who lost the Ashes 3-1 or 4-1 on three of four occasions, with only the 1986-87 Amis-inspired series providing success.
Ryder Cup Connection and Historical Patterns
Europe's Ryder Cup success has become an unlikely bad omen for England's Ashes prospects. While the tournament originally pitted America against the United Kingdom, British victories in 1929 and 1933 coincided with English Ashes triumphs.
However, since the competition expanded to include pan-European teams, the correlation has reversed. European victories have typically preceded Australian Ashes dominance in 1989, 1994-95, 1997, 2002-03, 2006-07, 2013-14 and 2017-18. The sole exception came in 2010-11 when Europe's Ryder Cup win preceded England's Ashes success.
In 2023, the pattern continued as England had to mount a significant comeback from 2-0 down to secure a drawn series following European Ryder Cup success.
These unusual correlations demonstrate how seemingly random factors beyond conventional cricket analysis can influence one of sport's greatest rivalries, offering both hope and concern for English and Australian supporters as they anticipate the next chapter in Ashes history.
