Trump's First Year Back: A Review of Promises on Economy, Immigration, and Conflict
It has been a tumultuous first year since Donald Trump was restored to the White House, to say the least. For his MAGA supporters, the past twelve months may have flown by, as they witnessed their president wield the full power of the state against what they perceive as systemic issues in American society. Conversely, for those who voted for Kamala Harris, the year might have felt like an eternity, marked by increased force from ICE agents and significant structural changes at the White House.
On 20 January last year, the newly sworn-in Trump delivered the longest inauguration speech in modern American history, making bold promises to cut immigration, tackle inflation, end foreign wars, and reform the justice department. As we reflect on his first year back in office, the question arises: how much of this agenda has he accomplished? Has it been a success for the MAGA movement, or a case of broken promises? Let's delve into the details across key areas.
Economy: Inflation and Tariffs Under Scrutiny
During his 2024 campaign, Trump heavily focused on the economic pressures faced by Americans, particularly at fuel pumps and in supermarkets. While he has claimed some victories, inflation has not seen a dramatic slowdown in his second term so far. Latest figures for December show inflation at 2.7%, slightly below the 2.9% recorded in December 2024 under Biden, but both rates remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% annual target.
Inflation did drop to a low of 2.3% last April, the lowest rate in over four years, before climbing again. Trump has touted recent data, declaring that "inflation is defeated," yet many Americans continue to feel the pinch in their wallets. Notably, electricity prices have surged by 6.7%, impacting those heating homes during winter, while food inflation, especially for items like meat, fish, and eggs, averages 3.9% higher than before Trump took office. Dining out costs remain 4.9% above the previous year.
Healthcare spending has also escalated, reaching $5.3 trillion in 2025, up from $4.9 trillion the year before, partly due to cuts to Medicaid under the "One Big Beautiful Bill." On tariffs, Trump promised "massive amounts of money pouring" into the US Treasury, with estimated annualised revenue for 2025 around $330 billion. However, experts like Heather Hurlburt note that while significant, this does not offset recent tax cuts, and prices have not decreased as promised.
Immigration: Enforcement and Deportations
Upon taking office, Trump declared a national emergency at the southern border, allocating $75 billion for immigration enforcement and boosting ICE's budget. Encounters at the Mexico border have plummeted from 96,033 in December 2024 to around 10,000 per month since February 2025. On deportations, the Department of Homeland Security claims over 622,000 removals in 2025, though ICE figures suggest a lower number of around 352,375, with no data for border patrol actions.
Compared to Biden's 597,450 deportations in 2024, Trump's numbers may be higher but not drastically so. The administration also reports nearly two million "self-deportations" since January 2025, incentivised by cash and flights. However, the lack of a clear definition for deportations makes the picture murky. While Trump vowed to deport "millions and millions of criminal aliens," only one in four detainees have criminal convictions, according to latest ICE data.
Doris Meissner, a former immigration chief, notes that Trump has kept immigration at the centre of his agenda, unleashing unprecedented actions, though the long-term impact on America remains uncertain and not easily reversible.
Conflict: Peace Efforts and Military Actions
Trump has positioned himself as a peacemaker, claiming to have ended eight conflicts in his first year. A notable achievement is brokering a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, ending a decades-long dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh. However, other efforts, such as deals in Thailand-Cambodia and Rwanda-DRC conflicts, have seen continued fighting.
Despite promises to solve the Ukraine war in 24 hours and address Gaza, both conflicts persist with significant humanitarian crises. Trump's administration has been involved in 672 air and drone strikes in its first year, nearly matching Biden's four-year total of 694, raising questions about his pledge to end forever wars. Experts like Benjamin Friedman argue that Trump lacks the focus and patience for complex peacemaking, relying more on military coercion, as seen in strikes on Iran and the capture of Venezuela's president.
Justice and Rebranding Initiatives
Trump vowed to end the weaponisation of state power against political opponents, yet Reuters research indicates at least 470 targets for retribution since his return, averaging over one per day. High-profile figures like former FBI director James Comey and Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell have been investigated, though the White House defends these as policy corrections.
In a symbolic move, Trump renamed the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America via executive order, a change recognised by Google Maps in the US but contested internationally. He also restored Mount McKinley's name, reversing Obama's change to Denali, hinting at expansionist tendencies amid desires for Greenland.
Overall, Trump's first year back has seen mixed results, with progress in some areas like border enforcement and peace deals, but ongoing challenges in inflation and conflict resolution, leaving his legacy as a work in progress.
