US-Ukraine Relations Take a Warmer Turn
The relationship between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has unexpectedly warmed, shifting from a disastrous White House meeting in February 2025 to a series of productive talks. This thaw coincides with the deepening US-Israeli war with Iran, which has created new strategic alignments.
According to Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former White House adviser on European affairs, "There's no question that he's warmed up to Zelenskyy. We've gone from a phase in which he was throwing Zelenskyy out of the Oval Office, and turning his back on him, to a situation today where they seem to have a reasonably good relationship."
Key Meetings and Shifts in Tone
This week, Trump and Zelenskyy met at the White House after Zelenskyy attended the funeral of Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a staunch Ukraine supporter. This followed their encounter at last month's Nato summit in Ankara, where Trump praised Zelenskyy, whom he had once called a "dictator," and promised licenses for Ukraine to develop its own Patriot missile interceptors, though he cast doubt on that promise at a cabinet meeting on Friday.
Another notable development was the meeting in Kyiv between Zelenskyy and Laura Loomer, a far-right influencer with influence over Trump. Loomer admitted she had been "bamboozled" by Russian propaganda and had believed "a lot of untrue things" about Ukraine. Her change of view, she said, was affecting sentiment across the Maga movement.
Iran War as a Catalyst
The warming relations come as the US struggles to conclude the war with Iran, which Trump launched with Israel on 28 February. A memorandum of understanding signed in June for a 60-day ceasefire has become moot as hostilities resumed over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway Iran has effectively closed, threatening the global economy.
Trita Parsi, vice-president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, noted, "At a moment when he is stuck in a war, faced with bad military options, and suddenly the Ukrainians are approaching him no longer asking for American charity but offering help, I find it quite plausible that that could be a reason."
Ukraine's Role as a Provider of Drone Expertise
Ukraine has become a world leader in defensive drone technology, developed in response to Iranian Shahed drones supplied to Russia. Zelenskyy told UK MPs in March that 200 Ukrainian military experts had been dispatched to 11 Gulf countries, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait, to advise on countering Shahed drones.
Last weekend, Ukraine struck an Iranian commercial vessel on the Caspian Sea, claiming it was transporting arms to Russia. Iran said the strike killed an Iranian sailor and threatened retaliation. Zelenskyy defended the action, saying Iran had "attacked" Ukraine by supplying weaponry to Russia, and vowed to share intelligence showing Russian satellite surveillance of Gulf states and US facilities, which he said correlates with Iranian strikes.
Strategic Implications and Risks
Kupchan said Zelenskyy was being a "good salesman" in persuading Trump that Ukraine is an ally worth supporting, appealing to Trump's transactional instincts. "Zelensky has done a very good job of communicating to Trump that he is going to help him on Iran," Kupchan said. "It's an investment in his relationships with Trump, and with Europe, because he's demonstrating Ukraine's value as an ally."
However, Trump's apparent vacillation over the Patriot pledge shows the fragility of the relationship. Some analysts warn that Ukraine risks merging two localized wars into a global conflict, inviting Tehran to widen retaliation. Sina Toossi, a fellow at the Center for International Policy, said, "Trump's apparent warming toward Zelensky only strengthens this perception. The likely implication is not an immediate missile strike on Ukraine, but a broader expansion of where Tehran believes it can legitimately impose costs."
Ukraine's acting foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, called his Iranian counterpart to stress that "our goal is to avoid unnecessary escalation," adding that "all of Ukraine's actions are aimed solely at defending our country from Russian aggression."
Parsi suggested Ukraine's involvement could "reframe" the Iran war as not just serving Israeli interests but also defending Ukraine, potentially appealing to European countries and Democrats who oppose the Iran war but support Ukraine. However, Kupchan noted, "The centre of gravity in the Maga movement is still skeptical of foreign wars, and of sending large amounts of money to Ukraine, and I don't see that changing."
Matt Duss, vice-president of the Center for International Policy, warned that Zelenskyy's efforts to help Trump with Iran could undermine support for Ukraine. "Trying to draw closer to Israel in the war on Iran really undermines a lot of Ukraine's case, because Israel is effectively trying to do to the Palestinians precisely what Russia has been trying to do to Ukraine," Duss said. "That could potentially diminish what has been up until now pretty good bipartisan support for Ukraine."
