Andrei Klepach, chief economist at VEB.RF, Russia's state development corporation, has said Russia will not win the war in Ukraine and that the country is heading for a social crisis comparable to the upheavals of 1917 and 1991. In remarks first reported by the Moscow Times, Klepach dismissed Kremlin expectations that Ukraine and its Western allies would eventually capitulate.
Klepach's blunt assessment
'We will not win this competition in this war of attrition,' Klepach said. 'We have this illusion that everything there will collapse. It has not collapsed and will not collapse.' He noted that the conflict in Ukraine, involving NATO, has already lasted longer than World War Two, with no end in sight.
Klepach warned that Putin risks repeating the mistakes of Tsar Nicholas II and the 'senile' Soviet rulers, both of whom steered the country in the wrong direction. He argued that Russia is 'almost certainly' facing a social crisis at a time when the Kremlin believes its system remains secure.
Historical parallels
He compared the current danger to the February Revolution of 1917, which toppled the Romanov dynasty, and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. 'No one expected the February Revolution either,' he said, adding that Vladimir Lenin had doubted he would live to see a revolution just weeks before it began. Regarding 1991, Klepach said: 'The situation in the Soviet Union in 1991 — we had been heading towards it slowly and consistently, and everyone understood that we were heading towards a crisis, but there was no fatal inevitability that the Soviet Union would collapse.'
Despite the grim outlook, Klepach said: 'I believe Russia will not fall apart, but I am almost certain that we will face a social crisis.'
Rare insider criticism
Criticism of this kind from a Kremlin insider is rare. Klepach has held key posts in government and the central bank, as well as at arms-maker Almaz-Antey, the Tactical Missiles Corporation, and state nuclear energy corporation Rosatom. He currently serves as chief economist at VEB.RF, which finances major Putin projects and plays a central role in supporting Russia's faltering economy.
The remarks underscore growing concerns within Russian elite circles about the sustainability of the war effort and the potential for domestic unrest, as the conflict drags on with no resolution in sight.
