Emmanuel Macron welcomed Giorgia Meloni to the Élysée Palace in Paris on 17 April 2026. The Italian prime minister has long walked a tightrope between Europe and the United States, but the Iran war and Donald Trump's attacks on her have changed everything.
Trump's Reported Approach to Fifa
Last week, the Trump administration sounded out Fifa about replacing Iran with Italy at this year's World Cup. This jolted insiders and pundits, casting fresh light on the unusual and evolving relationship between Trump and Meloni.
Rift with the Oval Office
In recent weeks, Meloni's standing as the darling of the US right has been imperilled by an unexpected rift with the Oval Office. Trump dramatically distanced himself from his Italian ally over her refusal to join US attacks on Iran. "I'm shocked at her. I thought she had courage, but I was wrong," the US president told Corriere della Sera. The reported approach to Fifa, since ruled out by Italian ministers, may have signalled a wish by Trump to mend fences.
Political and Ideological Grounding
Meloni's relationship with Trump has never been primarily about policy. It has been grounded in politics, ideology, and geopolitics. Politically, she has leveraged her proximity to Trump while maintaining pragmatic ties with EU leaders, enhancing her international reputation as a responsible rightwing leader. Ideologically, both subscribe to a civilisational vision of the west. Geopolitically, she believes European countries must remain close to the US regardless of who sits in the Oval Office.
Tangible Advantages for Italy?
Her proximity to Trump has yielded few tangible advantages for Italy, apart from some clemency on US imports of Italian pasta. Where Italy has conceded to Trump, it has done so alongside the rest of Europe. Where it has resisted US pressure, it has done so through coordination with EU partners.
Strategic Limitations Exposed
The war with Iran has laid bare the strategic limitations of this approach. Its economic consequences have been felt directly by Italians at the petrol pump. The war has reinforced a perception that Trump is making the international system structurally insecure. Meloni's balancing act has become increasingly difficult, especially after a domestic setback in a referendum on judicial reform, where her association with Trump proved a liability.
Breaking Point
Trump's personal attack on Pope Leo XIV after the pontiff's criticism of the US war on Iran left Meloni with little room for manoeuvre. For an Italian conservative and self-styled Catholic leader, silence was not an option. Her response was measured: a defence of the pope and a statement that Trump's words were "unacceptable." But Trump's repeated personal insults transformed the situation into a political headache.
Short-Term Benefits, Long-Term Challenges
Short term, the rift may offer political benefits. Meloni has emerged as a defender of the Italian national interest and the Catholic church, even attracting solidarity from the opposition. Longer term, it is not going to be so easy. Her most viable course now appears to be a renewed emphasis on pragmatic relations in Europe, as signalled by her participation in the recent Paris summit on the strait of Hormuz, during which she embraced Emmanuel Macron.
At the same time, she will try to mend fences with Washington. The idea of Italy replacing Iran at the World Cup, from US special envoy Paolo Zampolli, may be an indirect olive branch. But the lukewarm reaction in Italy shows the risk of trying to mend ties in such an unorthodox way. It could be seen as an undignified act of contrition, costing her domestic political capital.
Crossroads
Meloni finds herself at a crossroads. She can lean more decisively towards Europe or seek to re-engage with the US on Trump's terms. Her past suggests a reluctance to make binary choices, but circumstances may soon force her hand. If Europe continues to be excluded from key decisions affecting its security and economic stability, the association with Trump could become an albatross around her neck. She will enter campaign season with no major reform attached to her government, a sputtering economy, and a deteriorating security environment for which Trump bears significant responsibility in the eyes of many Italians. The tension between Meloni the party leader and Meloni the statesperson is no longer abstract. It may become untenable. The question is not whether she can continue to balance the two but for how much longer.
