In the heart of Manchester, the upcoming byelection in Gorton and Denton has become a focal point of intense political drama, with palpable frustration among locals and a desperate need for strategic voting to counter the rise of Reform UK. This historically Labour stronghold, which has voted red by over 50% since World War II, now faces a three-way split between Labour, Reform, and the Greens, making the outcome unpredictable and highly consequential.
A Leadership Controversy and Voter Discontent
The stakes are sky-high for Labour. A victory here would soothe nerves on the party's anxious benches, but a loss could trigger heavy blame directed at Keir Starmer. Critics point to Starmer's decision to fix the party's ruling National Executive Committee to block Andy Burnham from selection, a move seen as grubby Westminster politicking that has weakened his leadership grip. Many believe Burnham, the popular Greater Manchester mayor, would have easily won in his home patch, and this exclusion has turned erstwhile supporters away, viewing it as a risky gambit that prioritizes internal power struggles over stopping Nigel Farage's Reform UK.
The Battle Against Reform and Internal Rifts
With more than 40% of voters from ethnic minority backgrounds, the anti-Reform majority is strong, but it risks splintering. The Greens and Labour are locked in a fierce contest, accusing each other of dirty tactics like uprooting posters, while a mass of canvassers floods the area. Pollsters like Patrick English of YouGov warn that the result hinges on whether Labour or the Greens can unite the "beat Reform" vote. Without clear polling, anti-Reform votes may split, potentially delivering a Reform victory under the first-past-the-post system.
The far-right threat is underscored by a planned "march for remigration" by Britain First in Manchester, challenging groups like Stand up to Racism. Reform's candidate, GB News presenter Matt Goodwin, has made controversial statements about migration and British identity, adding fuel to the fire. Voters express mixed feelings: some former Labour supporters echo Farage's "change" mantra, while others, like a dithering woman, acknowledge Labour's achievements—such as capped bus fares and falling NHS waits—but ultimately prioritize stopping Farage's "smile."
Andy Burnham's Role and Future Ambitions
Andy Burnham remains a ubiquitous presence, campaigning vigorously for local candidate Angeliki Stogia and pleading with voters not to boycott Labour over his exclusion. He emphasizes the threat of Reform, citing Runcorn's recent byelection loss by just six votes, and discusses national issues like disability benefits and electoral reform. Despite potential schadenfreude, Burnham acts as a loyal foot-soldier, yet his readiness for leadership is evident, with many seeing him as primed to govern amid Labour's missteps.
Next Thursday's result won't just decide a seat; it will shape the broader political battle ahead, revealing whether the left can unite or splinter in the face of rising far-right influence.
