Greens Narrow Labour Lead in Polls Following Historic By-Election Victory
The Green Party is now within striking distance of the Labour Party in national polling, following a historic by-election triumph in Gorton and Denton last week. According to the latest City AM/Freshwater Strategy poll, the Greens have surged to 15 per cent of the voter share, trailing Labour by a mere three points. This represents a significant narrowing of the gap compared to previous surveys, signaling a dramatic realignment in British politics.
Polling Numbers Reveal Major Political Shift
The poll results indicate a seismic shift since the last General Election, with the Green Party gaining eight percentage points while Labour has collapsed by 17 points. Reform UK currently leads the polls with 30 per cent of the voter share, while the Conservatives are tied with Labour at 18 per cent. The Liberal Democrats trail behind the Greens at 13 per cent.
These numbers reflect the unprecedented outcome of last week's by-election in suburban Manchester, where neither Labour nor the Conservatives managed to secure a top-two finish for the first time in modern political history. Green candidate Hannah Spencer captured over 40 per cent of the vote in the constituency, with Reform UK's Matt Goodwin following at just under 29 per cent. Labour's Angeliki Stogia came in third with approximately 25.4 per cent of voters supporting her.
Leadership Crisis Looms for Labour
The by-election defeat has triggered a leadership crisis for Labour, with 73 per cent of voters believing Keir Starmer should take responsibility for the loss. Furthermore, 56 per cent of respondents stated that Starmer's position as party leader is no longer tenable given the election results. A majority of Britons now believe Labour would perform better at the next general election under different leadership.
Several Labour MPs have expressed concern about the threat from the left flank, particularly as the Greens have achieved the highest favourability ratings across all political parties. Green Party leader Zack Polanski has seen his approval ratings improve to minus five in February, compared to Sir Keir Starmer's rating of minus 42, Nigel Farage's minus 19, and Kemi Badenoch's minus 4.
Internal Criticism and Political Fallout
The most popular individual in the City AM/Freshwater Strategy poll was Andy Burnham, who was prevented from standing in the by-election by Labour's National Executive Committee. This decision has sparked internal criticism and raised questions about party strategy.
Former Labour deputy leader Tom Watson has warned the government against shifting leftward in policy, arguing that the Greens have benefited from assembling a temporary coalition of protest voters, identity voters, and signal senders. Watson emphasized in a Substack post that even Burnham would not have won the Gorton and Denton seat under current circumstances.
Cabinet members have remained largely silent following the devastating election results, with MPs avoiding public discussion about potential leadership changes. Starmer now faces the challenge of shoring up political support through his response to the conflict with Iran and a renewed policy focus on the cost of living crisis.
Upcoming Electoral Tests
The local elections scheduled for May will provide another crucial test for the governing party as it prepares to defend hundreds of council seats across the country. These elections will offer further insight into whether the Green Party's surge represents a temporary protest vote or a more permanent realignment of British politics.
Methodological Note: Freshwater Strategy conducted interviews with 1,221 eligible voters in the UK, aged 18 and above, online between 27 February and 1 March 2026. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 per cent. Data has been weighted to be representative of UK voters. Freshwater Strategy are members of the British Polling Council and abide by their rules.
