Green Party Celebrates Historic Victory in Gorton and Denton Byelection
In a stunning political upset, the Green Party has achieved a landmark victory in the Gorton and Denton byelection, dealing a significant blow to Labour and the leadership of Keir Starmer. Hannah Spencer, a local plumber and Green Party councillor, was elected as the party's first MP in northern England, overturning Labour's 13,000-vote majority from the previous election. The tightly contested race saw Reform UK finish in second place, while Labour languished in a disappointing third position.
The Green Surge Continues with Convincing Win
The Green Party did not merely sneak a win in Gorton and Denton; they triumphed convincingly, capturing almost 41% of the vote. This figure is four times larger than their previous best byelection result, and they secured a comfortable majority of 4,400 votes. This victory marks the party's first ever win in a Westminster byelection, with their vote share increasing by an impressive 27.5%. This increase is five times larger than any achieved by the party in a byelection since 2010.
Reform UK secured a fairly distant second place with 10,578 votes, while Labour managed only 9,364 votes. The result occurs against a backdrop of growing support for the Greens, whose membership has surged from about 70,000 to more than 180,000 since Zack Polanski became leader in September last year. Party sources anticipate membership will soon reach 200,000.
According to Politico's poll of polls, the Greens are currently polling at 16% nationally, trailing both the Conservatives and Labour, who are tied at 18%, and Reform UK, which leads at 26%. However, supporters highlight significant progress, as the Greens were polling at only 10% in September, 21 percentage points behind Reform.
The choice of candidate was pivotal to the Greens' success. Hannah Spencer, a working-class plumber who has lived in Greater Manchester her entire life, proved to be a disarming force with a remarkable ability to connect with ordinary voters. In her victory speech, she focused on wealth distribution and giving a voice to working-class people, stating, "Life has changed. Instead of working for a nice life, we're working to line the pockets of billionaires. We are being bled dry." Notably, there was minimal emphasis on traditional green policies like tackling the climate emergency, with Spencer mentioning only a desire for "clean air" alongside good schools and a thriving high street. This shift suggests the Greens are repositioning themselves as a general leftwing populist party, according to some political commentators.
Reform UK's Momentum Faces Scrutiny After Second-Place Finish
Reform UK has contested four byelections this parliament, winning only one narrowly in Runcorn. In Gorton and Denton, their candidate Matt Goodwin, known for extreme views, led in the predominantly white working-class Denton area but struggled with the constituency's diverse population. Approximately 44% of voters in Gorton and Denton identify as coming from a minority ethnic background, and Reform's virulent anti-immigration message suppressed support among these groups.
Despite this, coming second was considered a good result by some commentators, as the swing experienced by Reform in this byelection roughly mirrors their national performance. Goodwin claimed to have "embarrassed Labour" in one of their strongest seats, asserting, "I think if we can do this here, we can do this pretty much anywhere." Pollsters More in Common noted that if Reform made similar progress uniformly across the country in a general election, they could secure up to 229 seats.
Labour's Troubles Deepen with Distant Third Place
Labour, which won Gorton and Denton with over 50% of the vote in the 2024 general election, finished a distant third in this byelection. This outcome reignites questions about Keir Starmer's leadership and criticism from the left of the party that he has not done enough to appeal to progressive voters. Starmer acknowledged the disappointment, stating, "It's a very disappointing result. Incumbent governments quite often get results like that midterm. But I do understand that voters are frustrated."
The prime minister's decision to block Andy Burnham from running for the seat has also come under renewed scrutiny, with campaigners suggesting Burnham could have secured a victory. Luke Tryl from More in Common emphasized that this loss is consequential for Labour, as it undermines their argument that the threat of Reform would unite progressive voters behind them. The result highlights Labour's challenges in areas with high proportions of graduates, students, and Muslims, with a noted shift among Muslim voters citing Starmer's position on Gaza as a key reason for moving away from the party.
Conservatives Hit Electoral Nadir with Poor Performance
The Conservatives performed disastrously in the byelection, managing just 706 votes and losing their £500 deposit after polling under 5%. Tory party leader Kemi Badenoch stated there was "only one sensible candidate standing in Gorton and Denton," their candidate Charlotte Cadden, who received only 1.9% of the vote. This marks only the second time since 1962 that the party has lost its deposit in a vote. The Liberal Democrats' Jackie Pearcey followed with 653 votes, also losing her deposit, while minor parties like The Official Monster Raving Looney Party and Advance UK received minimal support.
The Collapse of Two-Party Politics in British Elections
For the Conservatives, this result represents their worst byelection performance in history. For Labour, coming third in their 50th safest seat, which they have held for nearly 100 years, signals a dramatic decline. The byelection saw the sixth largest Labour majority overturned since World War II. With the Greens and Reform taking a combined 68% of the vote, and Labour and the Tories securing only 27%, the duopoly that has long dominated postwar British politics appears weaker than ever, according to political analysts.
