Gorton and Denton Byelection Enters Final Day with Poll Predicting Tight Three-Way Contest
As the Gorton and Denton byelection campaign reaches its final day, a new poll from Opinium indicates the race is exceptionally close, with the Green Party, Labour, and Reform UK all having a credible chance of victory. The data, commissioned for Byline Times and Forward Democracy, shows a dead heat among all voters, with the Greens and Labour tied at 28% and Reform UK at 27%.
Poll Details and Margin of Error
Among likely voters, the Greens hold a slight edge at 30%, compared to Labour and Reform UK both at 28%. This follows an earlier Omnisis poll from last week that had the Greens at 33%, Reform UK at 29%, and Labour at 26%. However, constituency polling can be erratic, and most of these leads fall within the margin of error, reinforcing that the result remains too close to call with certainty.
The key takeaway is the emergence of two insurgent parties in a traditionally safe Labour seat. Reform UK and the Greens are both competitive, a rare scenario in byelections where typically only one outsider party performs well. This development underscores the complete breakdown of the two-party system and signals a shift toward multi-party politics in the UK.
Tactical Voting Could Swing the Outcome
The Opinium poll also highlights the potential impact of tactical voting. According to Adam Bienkov's report for Byline Times, anti-Reform voters are significantly more likely to switch to the Greens than to Labour. Specifically, 66% of Labour and Liberal Democrat voters surveyed said they would consider switching to the Greens if it meant defeating Reform UK, compared to just 41% of Green and Lib Dem voters who would switch to Labour to counter Nigel Farage's party.
James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs at Opinium, commented, "The Gorton & Denton by-election is shaping up to be an incredibly tight and unpredictable three-way race, with this latest poll also suggesting the Greens could benefit more than Labour from tactical voting in the final days of the campaign."
Today's Political Agenda
The political spotlight remains on Westminster, with Prime Minister's Questions at noon featuring Keir Starmer facing off against Kemi Badenoch. In the afternoon, Chancellor Rachel Reeves will discuss the Ofgem price cap announcement during a visit, while the government publishes its courts and tribunals bill.
This byelection serves as a critical test of voter sentiment ahead of future elections, reflecting broader trends of political fragmentation and the growing influence of smaller parties in UK politics.
