Nigel Farage is facing growing pressures after Reform UK's disappointing second-place finish in the Makerfield byelection, a seat that many analysts considered demographically favorable for the party. While Farage's supporters note that Reform has led in over 300 consecutive national polls, byelection results tell a different story.
Byelection Struggles
Of the five byelections held since the 2024 general election, Reform has won only one—Runcorn and Helsby—by a mere six votes. In Makerfield, candidate Robert Kenyon increased Reform's vote share from the general election but still lost to Labour's Andy Burnham, a popular regional mayor backed by an aggressive campaign. Farage himself acknowledged the result as a disappointment.
This follows a distant second-place finish in Gorton and Denton four months earlier, where Reform lost to the Green Party. Both seats are in Greater Manchester but offer different lessons for the party.
Candidate Selection Issues
Reform's candidate selection has proven problematic. In Gorton and Denton, the party chose Matthew Goodwin, an academic popular in hard-right circles but whose demeanor clashed with the local electorate. For Makerfield, Kenyon—a local plumber and army reservist—seemed ideal until journalists uncovered his controversial online posts, including crude comments about women and skepticism toward vaccines. This damaged his appeal, particularly among female voters.
Tactical Voting and Right-Wing Competition
Reform appears vulnerable to tactical voting. In both byelections, voters from non-contending parties coalesced behind the strongest opponent to Farage. Additionally, Reform now faces competition from its right flank: Restore Britain, led by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe, took 7% of the vote in Makerfield. If replicated nationally, this could cost Farage dozens of seats. Restore's support from Elon Musk amplifies its reach, worrying Reform strategists.
Farage's Response
In response, Farage has shifted further right, emphasizing nativist rhetoric and arguing that the UK is institutionally biased against white people. However, this risks alienating moderate voters and undermining his long-standing firewall against far-right figures like Tommy Robinson.
Farage's ability to counter these threats is hampered by ongoing scrutiny over the £5 million gift he received before the general election, which has reduced his press conferences and damaged his credibility. Some voters in Makerfield cited this as a reason to reconsider supporting Reform.
Political analysts suggest Reform's national ceiling may be around 30%, and a shift toward far-right politics could lower that. Farage, an experienced politician, is not panicking, but he faces significant challenges ahead.
