A significant and lasting demographic shift is set to begin in the United Kingdom next year, according to a leading economic think tank. The Resolution Foundation predicts that 2026 will be the first year in over a century where the number of deaths permanently outnumbers the number of births, creating a profound 'tipping point' for the nation.
A Permanent End to a Century-Long Trend
This expected change marks a definitive break from the past. Since the start of the 20th century, births have almost consistently exceeded deaths in the UK. While temporary reversals have occurred, such as during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the think tank states that 2026 will likely inaugurate a long-term trend of natural population decline.
Greg Thwaites, Research Director at the Resolution Foundation, explained the gravity of the shift. "2026 could be a tipping point year as deaths start to outnumber births so that, without immigration, the population would start to shrink," he said. The fertility rate in England and Wales has fallen to a record low of 1.44 children per woman in 2023, making a domestic baby boom to offset deaths highly unlikely.
Implications for the Economy and Public Finances
The consequences of this demographic shift are far-reaching. A shrinking pool of working-age citizens means fewer people paying income tax and National Insurance, which are crucial for funding public services like the NHS, social care, and pensions. Simultaneously, demand for these services is rising due to an ageing population.
Dr Rebecca Montacute of the Social Market Foundation highlighted the stark choice this creates. "Without bringing in younger workers from abroad, either taxes must increase or services must be cut," she warned. The Resolution Foundation echoed this, stating that the trend could directly lead to "fewer people of working age" and "higher taxes" for those who remain.
Immigration: The Central Political Dilemma
This demographic reality collides head-on with current UK politics. All major political parties are engaged in a fierce contest to demonstrate who can best reduce immigration levels, which have been a dominant issue in recent years. However, the think tank's analysis suggests that future population growth will now depend almost entirely on international net migration.
Net migration, while having fallen from recent highs to 204,000 per year according to the latest data, is now the primary engine for population stability. Thwaites suggested this may force a change in the national conversation, moving "away from arguments over whether the country is already 'full' and onto whether we want to address population decline." He admitted, however, that the issue remains deeply "politically charged."
The government has pointed to its recent policies, with a Home Office spokesperson stating that net migration is at its lowest level in half a decade and that the Home Secretary has announced "the biggest overhaul of Britain's settlement model in 50 years." Meanwhile, public sentiment shows that for many, the decision not to have children is driven more by the high cost of living than by a lack of desire for a family.
As 2026 approaches, the UK stands at a demographic crossroads. The choices made on immigration, family support, and fiscal policy in the coming years will define the nation's social and economic landscape for generations to come.
