Vladimir Putin suggested on Saturday that the war in Ukraine may be 'coming to an end,' raising questions about why the Russian president would seek an end now given the evolving battlefield dynamics.
1. Russia is Losing Battlefield Momentum
After Ukraine's failed counteroffensive in summer 2023, Moscow had been gradually taking Ukrainian territory. Though Russian attacks were slow, grinding, and costly, they created a sense that Ukraine was slowly but inevitably losing. That has changed. Ukraine's recapture of Kupiansk in December surprised even Western military experts. An agreement preventing invaders from using Starlink in February, and Russia's own curtailment of Telegram, helped Ukraine reverse territorial losses in Zaporizhzhia region by about 100 square miles. In April, according to the Institute for the Study of War, Russia lost control of 45 square miles of Ukraine—the first net loss since August 2024, after negligible gains in February and March. A slow-motion victory for Moscow no longer looks certain.
2. Russian Casualties May Exceed Replacements
Ukraine claims that for the past five months, it has killed or wounded more Russian soldiers than are being recruited. Though figures are hard to verify, Ukraine bases its statistics on combat footage, reporting about 35,000 Russian casualties per month in March and April, overwhelmingly from drone strikes. Russian recruitment levels have dipped to about 800-1,000 per day in 2026 (24,000-30,000 per month), according to economist Janis Kluge, based on regional budget data. That aligns with statements from former president Dmitry Medvedev, who said 'more than 80,000' signed up in the first quarter. There is no immediate sign Putin will launch a second public mobilisation after the social unrest caused by the first in September 2022.
3. Ukrainian Refinery Attacks Expose Russia to Oil Price Falls
Russia's economy was faltering in early 2026, but a sudden oil price hike from Donald Trump's attack on Iran prompted recovery. Oil export earnings hit $19 billion in March, up from $9.8 billion in February—the highest since autumn 2023, according to the Kyiv School of Economics. However, recent long-range missile and drone attacks on Russian oil export terminals at Primorsk and Ust-Luga on the Baltic, two of 14 refineries or terminals Ukraine says it bombed in April, have slashed export volumes. Daily exports fell from 5.2 million barrels to 3.5 million, according to Sergey Vakulenko of the Carnegie Foundation. While higher oil prices offset estimated export falls for now, that could change if the US and Iran reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices tumble.
4. Ukraine is Becoming a Missile and Drone Superpower
Initially heavily reliant on Western equipment, Ukraine gradually invested in its own knowhow as Western stockpiles ran short. Success is demonstrated by deep strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, including three drone attacks on a refinery in Perm, 930 miles from the frontline. The arrival of cheap interceptors in early spring has given Ukraine fresh hope to knock out all but faster Russian missiles as Patriot stocks become scarce. Ukraine said its interceptors, including Sting from Wild Hornets, shot down 33,000 drones in March, double the previous month. It has begun exporting the technology to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, all attacked by Iran in spring. Russia even feared Ukraine could target its Red Square victory parade, prompting Zelenskyy to issue a decree allowing the event to proceed.
5. Putin May Hope to Reignite Dormant White House Interest
Russia's main effort has been diplomatic. Putin hopes to persuade Trump to force Zelenskyy into giving up the rest of Donetsk to compensate for stalled frontline progress. This offer was made at the Alaska summit in August, but Trump did not force it on Ukraine. Despite Putin's weekend comments and a suggestion he could work with former German chancellor Gerhard Schröder as a mediator, there is no sign Russia's maximalist demands have eased. Last week, key Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said peace talks could not start until Ukraine withdrew from all of Donetsk. Trump has been distracted by the Iran crisis, but Putin may hope to re-engage the White House with fresh language, if nothing else.
