With local elections just days away, much of the focus has been on what the results will mean for Keir Starmer's chances of survival. Related to this is the question of how well Reform and the Greens will do, with fewer column inches devoted to what lies ahead for the Conservatives. To some extent this is to Kemi Badenoch's credit.
Growing Confidence Amid Challenges
The Opposition leader has demonstrated a growing confidence in recent months, helped no doubt by some irresistible bruises on Labour's record that she enjoys punching week after week at PMQs. Her party – and her leadership – also appears more stable in the aftermath of a string of defections to Reform. Nigel Farage “has been doing my spring cleaning for me,” she says.
But with so much focus on what this week's vote means for the other parties, I asked if she's just hoping to slink through under the radar on election night, without attracting too much debate. “We're fighting for every vote,” she told me in our recent interview. I'm sure that's true, but it will take more than a bullish platitude to even the odds.
Forecasts and Fragmentation
On some forecasts, Badenoch could lose around half her local councillors. True, Labour's losses will likely be far heavier but while the Greens could add four or five hundred councillors to their ranks Reform could add three times that number, adding fresh fuel to the narrative that Nigel Farage's party is well and truly on the march.
How should Badenoch respond to this? In our conversation she almost appeared to revel in the fact that politics is now more fragmented than ever before. “Competition should force you to be better,” she said, adding: “Every tribe now has its own party [and] I need my tribe to recognise that the Conservative Party is the only credible alternative to Labour.”
Building a Tribe and Radical Ideas
Who's in this tribe? And are there enough of them to give Badenoch a shot at being Prime Minister? Reflecting on our interview, it's clear to me that the Tory leader is patient, thoughtful and clearly open to some radical thinking. She has, after all, already promised to abolish stamp duty on property transactions.
If her first period as Opposition leader was about stabilising the party, she's now in the ‘think deeply about policy’ stage. This seems entirely sensible, but before long we're going to need to see an entire menu of radical ideas built around a compelling narrative.
