In a stark political reversal, Nigel Farage is set to host a sold-out campaign rally in Falkirk this Saturday, a town recently gripped by protests against asylum seekers. This marks a dramatic shift from August 2013, when the then-Ukip leader was chased out of Edinburgh by jeering demonstrators. Back then, his party polled below 1% in Scotland. Now, polls suggest Reform UK could emerge as the second-largest party in May's Holyrood election, exploiting growing tensions over migration.
A Nation's Self-Image Under Strain
This turnaround challenges Scotland's long-cherished identity as a uniquely welcoming nation. The pro-independence movement once championed a 'civic nationalism', open to all who chose to call Scotland home. Iconic moments, like the Glasgow Girls' campaign in 2005 or the community blockade of a Home Office van in Pollokshields in 2021, were held up as symbols of this progressive ethos.
Today, the scene in Falkirk presents a stark contrast. Outside a hotel housing asylum seekers, protesters have chanted "Send them home," invoking notions of "ancestral homelands." The predominantly white, working-class town has also seen saltires erected on lampposts as part of the 'Raise the Colours' campaign, a symbol not previously associated with anti-immigrant feeling in Scotland.
Tensions Boil Over Beyond Falkirk
The discontent is not isolated. In Inverness, plans to house asylum seekers in a former barracks have sparked controversy, with primary school teachers harassed over a Christmas play about Syrian refugees. Similar placards have appeared outside a Glasgow primary school offering English lessons to asylum-seeker mothers.
Analysts note a clear orchestration by hard-right elements, echoing Reform UK rhetoric about "illegal" asylum seekers and threats from Muslim men. However, as First Minister John Swinney concedes, to exploit resentment, resentment must first exist. Local grievances have been fuelled by specific incidents, including a rape conviction and a sexual assault charge concerning men from the Falkirk hotel, and by systemic pressures.
Policy Pressures and Political Opportunism
The UK government's asylum backlog and decision to house single men in areas with little diversity are cited as root causes. Labour's batch-processing of cases has a knock-on effect, transferring housing responsibility to Scottish councils, 13 of which have declared housing emergencies.
Critics argue the SNP Scottish Government has compounded the issue through cuts to affordable housing and legislation that abolished 'priority need' for homelessness, effectively scrapping the 'local connection' test. This progressive policy has inadvertently encouraged single male asylum seekers from England to seek help in Scotland, overwhelming services. Glasgow, the primary dispersal city, has repeatedly asked the Home Office to pause new arrivals.
Farage adeptly exploits these strains. Ahead of his Falkirk visit, he cited a report that almost a third of Glasgow schoolchildren speak English as an additional language as evidence of "cultural smashing." This leaves mainstream politicians in a bind: condemning him as "racist" often amplifies his message to his target audience.
The SNP counters Reform's narrative by stressing asylum seekers are not "illegal," that multilingualism is an asset, and that Scotland's ageing population needs migrants. Yet, as Farage prepares for his volatile Falkirk event, news broke that Reform UK received a record £9 million donation from a cryptocurrency investor, highlighting the formidable resources now backing his message.
