Newly appointed Victorian Premier Ben Carroll faces a daunting task as he seeks to revive his party's electoral prospects. On Tuesday, Carroll was sworn in as premier, replacing Jacinta Allan, who resigned amid plunging approval ratings and a scandal involving organized crime infiltration of the construction sector. Carroll's first act was to announce a royal commission into the construction industry, a move designed to address the crisis that had engulfed the Allan government.
Carroll's challenge: distancing from the past
Carroll will want to distance himself from the unpopularity of his predecessor. Allan, who took over from Dan Andrews in 2023, failed to carve out her own identity, instead continuing Andrews' infrastructure-heavy agenda. Her close association with the 'Big Build' projects, including the suburban rail loop and airport rail, became a liability as reports emerged of organized crime links within the CFMEU. Allan's refusal to call an inquiry into the scandal eroded public trust, leading to disapproval ratings higher than those of federal opposition leaders Peter Dutton and Scott Morrison.
The new premier is unlikely to emulate Andrews' signature North Face jacket, a symbol of the previous era. Carroll must present a fresh vision to voters, distinct from the legacy of his predecessors. According to political commentator Jon Faine, Allan's biggest mistake was failing to articulate her own vision, instead offering "more big infrastructure projects and a continuation of the same agenda."
The CFMEU scandal and its fallout
The CFMEU scandal, which dominated headlines, revealed the extent of bikie and organized crime influence in the construction sector. The Age newspaper reported on the infiltration, forcing the government to act. Allan faced a choice: launch an inquiry or weather the storm. She chose the latter, but as Faine notes, "a royal commission into the Big Build risked being a royal commission into Allan." The backlash from marginal seats and a nervous backbench ultimately forced her resignation.
Carroll's immediate announcement of a royal commission signals a shift in strategy. However, the opposition, led by Jess Wilson, argues that changing leaders does not address the government's 12-year record. Wilson, who has limited parliamentary experience, taunted Carroll during his first question time, highlighting the government's vulnerability.
Electoral implications and the One Nation factor
With an election looming in late November, opinion polling will be critical. Carroll's gender—male—may influence voter perceptions, as Faine observes: "Yet again, we see a female politician deemed unelectable." Allan's departure echoes a pattern of female leaders being ousted before facing voters. The Liberal opposition claims the ALP is rearranging deckchairs on the Titanic, but a bounce in the polls could revive Labor's chances.
Pauline Hanson's One Nation party hovers over the election, despite having no local leader, candidates, or policy platform in Victoria. According to polls, some Victorians are open to supporting the party, which could siphon votes from both major parties. The ALP plans to brand the Coalition as reliant on One Nation, while the Coalition will attack Labor's 12-year incumbency.
As Faine concludes, "Buckle up: it's going to be quite a ride."
