The much-anticipated 'Keminaissance' for the Conservative Party appears to be on hold, as Kemi Badenoch's recent decisions and electoral performance suggest a party still in decline. With the Tories trailing in fifth place in the Greater Manchester mayoral byelection and a series of controversial moves, including the hiring of a convicted antisemite as an adviser, Badenoch's strategy of mirroring Reform UK is proving counterproductive.
Greater Manchester Byelection: A Crushing Blow
In the recent byelection to replace Andy Burnham as Mayor of Greater Manchester, Labour secured a decisive victory with 47% of the vote, while Reform UK trailed far behind at 21%. However, the Conservative candidate managed only 7.7%, placing the party fifth behind Restore Britain, a hard-right group with ties to racists and white supremacists. This marks a significant fall from previous elections where the Tories consistently held second place in the region. Such a poor showing among a large electorate indicates not just slow progress but a regression for the party under Badenoch's leadership.
Strategic Missteps: Housing Policy and Thetford Unrest
Badenoch's response to competition from the right has been to adopt more hardline policies, such as a proposal to evict nearly 230,000 non-EU foreign national households from their homes. The timing of this announcement coincided with violent unrest in Thetford, where mobs targeted suspected asylum seekers' accommodation. Critics argue this move is both heartless and impractical, potentially rendering families homeless and burdening local councils. The policy appears to be an attempt to outflank Reform UK, but it risks alienating moderate voters.
The Bonehill-Paine Controversy
Adding to the turmoil, Badenoch defended the selection of Joshua Bonehill-Paine, a man with a history of antisemitic harassment, as a council candidate in Somerset. Though Bonehill-Paine later withdrew, Badenoch appointed him as an adviser, a role at the national level she had previously deemed inappropriate. Shadow cabinet member Claire Coutinho's public forgiveness of Bonehill-Paine, citing her Catholic faith, has further stoked controversy, reinforcing harmful stereotypes.
A Losing Race to the Bottom
Badenoch's strategy of competing with Reform UK on its own terms is fundamentally flawed. Reform leader Nigel Farage can always offer more extreme policies, as seen in his promise to evict foreign nationals in three months compared to Badenoch's six. This approach risks driving moderate Conservative voters to the Liberal Democrats, particularly in the 'blue wall' seats of southern England. The party's obsession with hard-right policies has left little room for Conservatives who support net zero targets or the European Convention on Human Rights, further alienating potential supporters.
Conclusion: Dark Ages for the Tories
While Badenoch may achieve occasional victories, the broader trend is one of decline. The 'Keminaissance' remains a distant dream as the party grapples with internal divisions and a misguided strategy. As Jonathan Freedland notes, 'For the Tories, it looks like the dark ages have a while to run yet.' The party's future under Badenoch's leadership appears increasingly uncertain, with no clear path back to electoral relevance.
