Oxford Study Challenges Labour's Migration Strategy
Keir Starmer's plan to reduce reliance on overseas workers by training more Britons may fail to lower net migration or address critical skills shortages, according to a comprehensive new study from the University of Oxford's Migration Observatory. The research, published on Wednesday, suggests that simply increasing domestic training does not automatically translate to reduced immigration or filled job vacancies.
Why Local Workers Remain Elusive
The 13-page briefing paper identifies poor pay and challenging working conditions as primary barriers preventing employers from attracting UK-based workers to certain sectors. "Skill shortages are just one factor that contribute to employers' demand for migrant workers," the report states. "Local workers can be difficult to attract into certain roles because of poor pay and conditions."
Researchers found that recruitment of migrants is driven not only by employer needs but also by migrants' independent choices to come to the United Kingdom, regardless of whether specific skill shortages exist in the labour market.
The Complex Reality of Work Visas
Contrary to popular perception, work visas represent only a fraction of migration patterns affecting the UK workforce. Home Office data reveals that of the 3.45 million non-EU citizens with valid immigration status at the end of 2024, only 17% were main applicants on work visas.
The majority arrived through alternative routes including:
- Family or dependant visas
- Student visas
- Refugee status
"Work visas post-Brexit drove much of the increase in the migrant workforce in some industries, such as health and care, but had a much smaller impact in others, such as construction," the briefing explains.
Implementation Challenges for Policy Makers
The Migration Observatory report highlights significant obstacles facing government attempts to mandate training requirements for employers. "It is difficult to create effective incentives in the immigration system that explicitly encourage employers to invest in domestic training," researchers concluded.
A sectoral approach could encourage "free riders" – employers who benefit from industry-wide training initiatives without contributing themselves – while individual employer monitoring presents substantial practical difficulties. The report also notes that "significant data gaps prevent a comprehensive overview of how migration is affecting the UK's skills base."
Economic Dynamics Undermine Simple Solutions
Ben Brindle, a researcher at the Observatory and co-author of the report, explained the complex economic realities: "Any plan to make the UK labour market less reliant on overseas staff and encourage employers to train UK workers instead may not fill skills gaps in the UK economy."
He elaborated on the dynamic nature of labour markets: "There isn't a fixed number of jobs in the economy. For example, they dropped during Covid and then increased again afterwards. The UK could train more engineers, but demand for engineers might increase, too. This higher demand could cancel out the higher supply of engineers, leaving a skills gap."
Government Response and Policy Changes
The government has already implemented several restrictions, ending overseas recruitment of care workers in 2025 and eliminating visa access for middle-skilled positions such as butchers and chefs. New requirements will soon mandate that employers recruiting engineers, IT professionals, and telecommunications staff from abroad demonstrate concurrent investment in domestic workforce training.
Starting this summer, employer representatives in key sectors will need approved workforce plans. A UK government spokesperson stated: "Net migration is now at its lowest level in five years, down by more than two-thirds under this government. In the year to September 2025, visas issued to main applicants across all work routes dropped by 27%."
The spokesperson added that alongside immigration reforms, the government is developing "a structured, evidence-led approach covering skills, migration and wider labour market policies – including pay and conditions."
The Oxford study ultimately suggests that addressing Britain's labour challenges requires more nuanced solutions than simply training more domestic workers, highlighting the interconnected nature of migration patterns, economic demand, and workplace conditions in shaping the UK's employment landscape.
