A major new study has warned that significant gaps in official UK migration statistics are undermining public debate and hampering effective policy decisions, particularly concerning human rights laws.
Key Data Shortfalls Identified
The University of Oxford's Migration Observatory published an analysis on Friday, identifying ten critical areas where information is lacking. These include immigration enforcement, the rate of returns, and the size of the undocumented population living in the UK.
The research highlighted a specific and pressing knowledge gap regarding the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). With the government seeking to alter the convention and political parties like Reform and the Conservatives pledging to leave it, the study found there is little data to show who and how many people apply for, or are granted, permission to stay in the UK via the ECHR. Data on successful appeals against removal is also scarce.
Impact on Public and Policy Debate
Madeleine Sumption, Director of the Migration Observatory, stated that the UK's membership of the ECHR is a major issue in public debate, largely due to its impacts on migration policy. "But the current data can’t give us a clear picture of where and when it has most impact," she said. "This makes it harder for the public or policymakers to make an informed choice about an important decision with long-term repercussions for the UK."
One of the core problems identified is poorly linked records that fail to track a person's complete migration journey. Senior researcher Peter Walsh explained this makes it difficult to understand what happens to asylum seekers who are refused but not returned, or the sequence of appeals they undertake.
Political Reactions and Government Response
The findings come as Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood announced changes to the asylum system, aiming to fulfil Keir Starmer's pledge to cut overall immigration. Ministers plan new legislation to prevent human rights laws from frustrating deportations.
Political opponents were quick to criticise the statistical shortcomings. Liberal Democrat home affairs spokesperson Max Wilkinson said the report confirmed the Home Office "can’t be trusted to sort things out because it doesn’t even record the data properly." Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp accused the Labour government of keeping the country in the dark to hide a "weak and incompetent" approach.
A Home Office spokesperson responded, calling the findings "not acceptable," but blamed them on inheriting a system "out of control." The spokesperson pointed to ongoing reforms, claiming net migration is down by two-thirds and removals of illegal migrants are up 23% to nearly 50,000.
