The UK's net migration could climb to approximately 300,000 by the end of the decade, a key government adviser has projected, setting the stage for a major political debate as the country heads towards a general election.
Migration Forecast and Political Context
Professor Brian Bell, chair of the independent Migration Advisory Committee (MAC), stated that the overall migration figure is expected to jump "in the medium term" from its current level of 204,000. This anticipated increase is linked to a predicted resurgence in the numbers of overseas students and foreign workers coming to Britain.
Bell's assessment reinforces a recent forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). "I might expect a bit of a bounceback that's consistent with what the OBR predict," he said. "They expect it to return to more like 300,000 in the medium term and I think that's a reasonable prediction." This comes as Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has pledged in his election manifesto to reduce net migration, making immigration a central campaign issue.
Recent Trends and Fiscal Impact
Net migration had previously soared to a record 944,000 in the year to March 2023, driven by post-pandemic policies encouraging foreign labour. However, the latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) data shows a sharp decline. In the year to June 2025, net migration stood at 204,000, marking a 69% drop from 649,000 the previous year.
The detailed figures reveal that just under 900,000 people immigrated to the UK between July 2024 and June 2025, a decrease of over 400,000. Simultaneously, emigration rose by 43,000 to 693,000.
The MAC's latest reports, published alongside Bell's comments, provide a stark analysis of migrants' long-term fiscal impact. The committee estimated that the cohort of skilled workers who arrived in 2022-23 will contribute a net positive £47 billion to public finances over their lifetimes.
In contrast, the report highlighted a significant cost associated with migrants on family visas. It projected that the 51,000 people who entered as partners in 2022-23 would incur a lifetime net fiscal cost of £5.6 billion, averaging £109,000 per individual, with more than half being unemployed.
Calls to Tackle Worker Exploitation
The committee also issued a strong warning regarding the potential for abuse within the Overseas Domestic Worker (ODW) visa route, used for nannies, housekeepers, chauffeurs, and carers. Its annual report stated that while the full scale is unknown, "abuse and exploitation does occur" and the current system allows such employers to operate "more or less unchecked."
While acknowledging enforcement difficulties, the MAC urged the government "to do more" to reduce the risks faced by these vulnerable workers.
These projections and analyses arrive at a critical juncture, placing future immigration policy at the heart of the UK's political and economic agenda.
