Canada has recorded its most significant quarterly population contraction in more than half a century, marking a dramatic reversal for a nation long celebrated for its open-door policy towards newcomers. New data reveals the tangible impact of a series of federal government crackdowns on immigration levels, which have become an increasingly partisan issue.
A Historic Population Reversal
According to estimates released by Statistics Canada, the country's population fell by 0.2% in the third quarter of this year, dropping to 41.6 million from 41.65 million in July. This represents the largest such decline in over five decades, with the only comparable drop occurring in 2020 due to Covid-19 border restrictions.
The recent decrease is largely attributed to a steep fall in the number of international students, following the federal government's decision to aggressively reduce the number of study permits issued. This policy shift marks a stark contrast to the stance championed just a year earlier by former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who argued that boosting immigration was key to Canada's economic success.
From Expansion to "Getting Under Control"
The political landscape on immigration has transformed rapidly. Facing public discontent over housing affordability and strained public services, the Liberal government began dismantling the very system it had built. By the time Prime Minister Mark Carney took office after a spring election, the policy U-turn was well underway.
In November, Carney told students his government was "getting immigration under control." The federal government has employed blunt instruments to achieve this, including halving study permits for international students, cutting work permits for migrant labourers, and increasing deportations.
This follows a period of explosive growth. Two years ago, addressing post-pandemic labour shortages, Canada increased its non-permanent resident population by 1.3 million—a move the government later concluded was "too much too fast."
A Nation Divided: Public Sentiment and Partisan Rifts
The policy reversal aligns with a significant souring of public opinion. Polling from the Angus Reid Institute found that Canadian concern over immigration has quadrupled in the last two years. Even internal government polling indicated support for immigration levels had hit a 30-year low.
Keith Neuman of the Environics Institute notes that while skepticism exists across party lines, immigration has become a potent partisan wedge issue. "The split between parties has been gradually building over the past 15 years, but over the last two years, maybe that gap has really widened," he said. Federal Conservative party supporters are now the most critical demographic.
Neuman also highlighted a fundamental shift in the nature of public concern. For decades, debates centred on cultural assimilation. Now, the collision of high immigration volumes with a severe cost-of-living crisis has shifted focus to economic affordability, housing, and infrastructure.
The practical strain on the system is evident. A recent tool from Canada's immigration ministry shows processing wait times for some cases stretching to a decade. Data also shows a spike in resettled refugees accessing homeless shelters in 2023 during the population surge.
Economists suggest the population correction could boost real GDP per capita but will also act as a drag on broader economic growth. As Canada navigates this new era, the challenge remains balancing national capacity with the economic benefits immigration once unquestionably provided.
