Liberal senator Andrew Bragg has defended his proposal to cap net overseas migration (Nom) at 180,000 per year, a figure that would be the lowest since the mid-2000s, even as senior Coalition colleagues declined to publicly support the target. In a speech at the National Press Club on Wednesday, Bragg argued that such a reduction is manageable and necessary to address Australia's housing shortfall.
Bragg's Migration Proposal and Justification
Bragg, the shadow minister for housing, said a Nom target of 180,000 or under over four years would help rectify the housing shortfall by better aligning population growth with dwelling supply. He cited historical precedent, noting that Nom declined from 300,000 to 175,000 in 18 months during 2009-10. "A Nom reduction on this scale is manageable and in line with reductions we've seen in the past," he said.
To achieve this reduction, Bragg suggested "modest reductions in international students, working holiday-makers, and some unskilled workers," while ensuring the skill changes industry needs are still met. He emphasized the importance of "lifting migration standards and analysing them carefully each year to ensure integrity and public trust in our migration settings."
Coalition Colleagues Decline to Endorse Specific Figure
Despite Bragg's advocacy, other Coalition figures have stopped short of endorsing his exact number. Opposition leader Angus Taylor indicated the Coalition's target would be "well below 200,000" but said an exact figure would only be announced during the next election campaign, once housing construction numbers are known. Shadow treasurer Tim Wilson told News24, "I don't think you should bank that at all," when asked if Bragg's proposal was finalised policy, adding that no announcement has been made.
Shadow education minister Julian Leeser said at an education conference that Nom must be lowered and that "international education must be part of the balance." Nationals leader Matt Canavan ruled out cuts to visas affecting migrant workers in farming or rural and regional areas. Meanwhile, One Nation has proposed a cap of 130,000 visas per year but without specifying which areas would be targeted.
Migration Trends and Government Forecasts
Nom surged after the pandemic, when it had fallen below zero, but has recently returned to more typical levels. Under the Albanese government's settings, Nom is forecast to drop to 295,000 in the last financial year, 245,000 in 2026-27, and 225,000 in 2027-28. Bragg admitted the opposition hasn't finalised its "complete policy" on migration but felt it was "important to move the debate" to more details, aiming for a "more sophisticated understanding" of the nexus between housing and migration.
Broader Policy Ideas and Reflection
Bragg's speech also included proposals to strip the National Construction Code from hundreds of pages to just 80 and to introduce a flatter tax structure for higher earners. Reflecting on his time as a backbencher in the Morrison government, he said, "I am sorry I didn't do more to stop the madness," referring to what he called Canberra's giving up on the budget. "Whenever a politician announces more spending, they are stealing from tomorrow because there is no intention to balance the books," he added.
