Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan has lost her seat in the Senedd as Labour faces a devastating collapse in the country once considered its heartland. The party has come top in every Welsh election – both Westminster and the devolved Cardiff Bay parliament – since 1922. But Keir Starmer appears to have brought that astonishing winning streak to a crashing end, with nationalists Plaid Cymru and right-wingers Reform UK now battling for power in Wales.
Historic Defeat in Ceredigion Penfro
The loss of Morgan’s seat in Ceredigion Penfro may come to epitomise the Prime Minister’s most painful electoral day since coming to power in 2024. This afternoon, it was announced that the six MSs representing the region would be made up of three from Plaid Cymru, two from Reform and one from the Conservatives.
Broader Electoral Collapse
Beyond Wales, Labour has lost hundreds of council seats and control of more than a dozen councils in England, while Reform has picked up many more. Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar, who previously called for Starmer to step down over the Peter Mandelson controversy, has said his party lost the ‘argument for change’ in Holyrood.
New Voting System
Yesterday’s election was the first time Wales voted using a new system based on proportional representation. Instead of individual candidates running for 40 constituencies alongside 20 regional politicians, the country now elects six MSs to each of 16 larger constituencies. The proportion of MSs from each party allocated to each of these 16 areas is calculated by a mathematical formula. This change also means the size of the Senedd has increased by more than 50%, from 60 seats to 96.
Labour's Vote Share Plummets
Labour’s share of the vote has fallen far behind Plaid Cymru and Reform UK in Wales, achieving barely a third of their vote counts. It is a stunning result in a country regarded as one of the birthplaces of the Labour movement. Keir Hardie was MP for Merthyr Tydfil when he served as the party’s first parliamentary leader and it is the birthplace of such prominent figures as NHS founder Aneurin Bevan and former leaders Michael Foot and Neil Kinnock.
Labour Concedes
A spokesperson for the party conceded the election earlier this afternoon, saying: ‘It is looking like Welsh Labour will return a group of around 10 MSs – which will at least allow a vocal Labour opposition, even though we are deeply disappointed about not being able to lead a government.’
