The Makerfield byelection is about more than Andy Burnham. It represents a critical test for the Labour Party, as the most popular Labour politician in the country faces a tight race against Reform UK. If Burnham cannot win this Labour-held seat, the party's electoral problems may run far deeper than Keir Starmer's leadership.
A Proof of Concept for Burnham
Winning in Makerfield is Burnham's proof of concept. He believes that a new direction for Labour, and potentially a new leader, can stop the march of Nigel Farage and an impending Reform government. However, if he cannot win, Labour MPs will have to confront whether there is anything they can do to prevent Reform from taking power. This dark prospect keeps many awake at night.
Electoral Challenges and Polling Data
Despite a majority of more than 5,000 at the last election, pollsters gave Labour a 5% chance of holding the seat at the next general election. Burnham's candidacy significantly changes that equation, but it will still not be easy. The most recent poll put him just a couple of points ahead of Reform. Reform won 50% of the vote share across Makerfield in the 7 May local elections and gained 24 seats on Wigan council, including in two wards in Ashton-in-Makerfield.
Local Campaign Dynamics
MPs from across the north-west and from Burnham's soft-left wing descended on the seat this weekend, even before Burnham has been formally selected to run. The reality of what is at stake is beginning to sink in. One MP who spent a day in the constituency admitted to being worried, describing the race as "really tight." Another Burnham supporter noted the difficulty of accepting that they cannot control the outcome. Voters who had only voted Reform a week ago are being courted to return to Labour, a challenging task in what is expected to be a nasty and divisive campaign.
Burnham's Advantages and the Green Factor
Burnham has the advantage that many of those who voted for Reform in the local elections have also probably voted for him before. He won 66% of the vote in Wigan just two years ago when he ran for the Greater Manchester mayoralty. However, the Green Party remains part of the equation. If they put up a fight in Makerfield, Burnham will need to prove he can win back Green voters disillusioned by Labour and convince them he is the man to defeat Reform.
Stakes and Historical Context
As Josh Simons, who gave up his seat to trigger the byelection, puts it, this is "the fight of our times." Burnham can only change the course of history by winning. It is hard to think of a comparable electoral moment, making the Makerfield byelection a pivotal event for Labour's future.
