Labour's Bev Craig has secured a decisive victory in the Greater Manchester mayoral byelection, winning 66.3% of the vote in the final round against Reform UK's 33.7%. The result, announced on Friday, marks a significant recovery for Labour in areas that had recently shifted to Reform UK and the Greens, and positions Craig to succeed Andy Burnham as the mayor of one of the UK's most powerful regional authorities.
Landslide in Second Round
Under the supplementary vote system, no candidate achieved more than 50% of first-preference votes, leading to a count of second preferences. Labour's share surged from 47% in the first round to 66.3% in the final tally, while Reform UK's share increased from 21% to 33.7%. The Greens finished third with 12% of first-preference votes.
In her victory speech at Co-op Live in Manchester, Craig emphasized unity, stating, "We must move away from divisive politics that try to pit neighbour against neighbour." She also praised the "fantastic people doing incredible things against the odds every single day – rejecting the politics of hate but standing with their neighbours, looking out for each other."
Boost for Prime Minister Burnham
The scale of Labour's victory is a major boost for Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who resigned as mayor after winning a parliamentary seat in June. The result suggests Labour can win back both left- and right-leaning voters who had deserted the party under previous leadership. It also raises questions for Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, whose party has seen its national poll lead evaporate amid internal funding controversies.
In the May local elections, Reform UK had made significant inroads, winning over 100 seats across Greater Manchester, including all but one in Wigan and 18 out of 19 in Tameside. However, Farage's decision to stand as an MP in Clacton diverted attention from the mayoral campaign, potentially weakening the party's performance.
Labour's Comeback in Key Boroughs
Labour sources reported wins in every ward in Bury and Tameside, and all but one in Trafford. In Oldham, where Reform UK had ended Labour's 15-year control, Labour won 17 of 20 wards in the mayoral contest. The party also swept all wards in Gorton and Denton, constituencies won by the Greens in February.
One senior Labour source attributed the result to Burnham's prime ministership, saying it signaled "you can vote Labour again," and to voters' confidence in Craig. The source noted that Reform UK had "massively underperformed" relative to expectations.
Reform UK's Challenges and Restore Britain's Rise
Reform UK faced additional pressure from the hard-right Restore Britain party, which won 8.7% of the vote, pushing the Conservatives into fourth place. Restore Britain, launched just six months ago, focused its campaign on child sexual abuse gangs and performed strongly in deprived outer boroughs like Tameside, where it secured 14% of the vote (nearly 6,000 voters), and Rochdale and Oldham, where it won 12%.
This fragmentation on the right could pose long-term challenges for Reform UK as it seeks to consolidate its support base.
Greens Disappointed but Hopeful
The Green Party, which had won 7% of the vote in the 2024 mayoral contest, saw its candidate Geraldine Coggins receive 12% of first-preference votes. Coggins expressed disappointment, noting that Craig's 47% first-round share was significantly lower than Burnham's typical 60%+ victories. "The fact this has even gone to the second round is devastating for them," she said, adding that the result was "not a ringing endorsement" of Craig.
Despite the setback, Coggins highlighted a "surge" in support under new leader Zack Polanski, suggesting the party's long-term trajectory remains positive.
Turnout and Historical Context
The byelection, triggered by Burnham's victory in the Makerfield parliamentary byelection on 18 June, was the largest of its kind in British political history, with over 2 million eligible voters. However, turnout was only 25%, the third lowest for any mayoral byelection, attributed to low voter awareness and the summer holiday period.
The result underscores Labour's resilience in its northern heartlands and sets the stage for Craig to lead Greater Manchester through a period of significant political and economic challenges.
