The upcoming byelection in Holborn and St Pancras is Labour's to lose, and lose it might, according to Guardian columnist Polly Toynbee. The seat, vacated by Keir Starmer last week, is a test of Andy Burnham's 'bounce' as Labour leader, but the Greens, led by Zack Polanski, are mounting a strong challenge on issues like Gaza, rent controls, and North Sea oil drilling. The result could have existential implications for the Green Party, which risks being pushed back to the political fringes if it fails here.
Labour's stronghold under threat
Holborn and St Pancras, neighbouring Westminster, has been a solid Labour constituency for decades. In the 2024 general election, Starmer won comfortably, but in May's local elections, the Greens gained extra council seats, though Labour kept control and remained ahead by 10 percentage points. The byelection, triggered by Starmer's resignation, has attracted 96 Labour applications for selection, though no nationally recognised names are among them, according to the article.
By-elections are idiosyncratic, Toynbee notes, as voters risk nothing and often stay home. Those who do turn out may use the opportunity to 'send messages' on maverick issues, which could favour the Greens. Peter Kellner, former president of YouGov and a leading psephologist who lives in the constituency, expects a Green win in a close call. 'This is just the kind of seat a Labour government loses,' he told Toynbee.
Demographics favour rebellion
The constituency is demographically favourable to a protest vote. Only a quarter of residents are homeowners, compared with 62.5% across England and Wales, and 43% live in social housing. It is home to both deprivation and many graduates, with 45% of residents born abroad. The Greens appeal to young and progressive voters on defence, rent controls, and North Sea oil, issues that resonate with the student population.
The Greens oppose nuclear weapons, back rent controls that Burnham has rejected, and oppose Jackdaw and Rosebank North Sea oil and gas drilling, which may be approved soon. They also want rapid nationalisation of utilities. Locally, they campaign on crime, mobile phone thefts, and housing.
Gaza could shift votes
Gaza is a key issue that may shift votes from Labour to Green. In the 2024 election, Starmer's vote share was slashed, and a pro-Palestinian independent candidate came second with 18.9% of the vote. Arrests of protesters supporting Palestine Action have been 'another gift to the Greens', Toynbee writes. The Green campaign asks: 'Why elect just another Labour MP, when a Green MP in parliament will challenge the government?'
However, Labour is likely to select Sagal Abdi-Wali, Camden council's leader and community organiser, who is popular locally. She is a hijab-wearing Muslim woman who has worked to calm racial and religious tensions and build relationships with Jewish voters. 'If Greens stir up community antagonisms over Gaza, that would be disgraceful,' she told Toynbee.
Reform's attacks galvanise Labour
Reform UK has no foothold in the constituency, but its attacks on Abdi-Wali may galvanise Labour voters. Zia Yusuf, Reform's home affairs spokesperson, pointed out on X that Abdi-Wali 'was born in Somalia. Do you understand what's happening?' Georgia Gould MP, former Camden council leader, defended her, saying she 'has dedicated her life to public service' and is 'the elected leader of Camden council, a community where she grew up and has lived for 35 years'. Telegraph headlines also defined her primarily as a 'Somali refugee', which Toynbee says will remind Labour voters of the fight against the racist right.
On the doorstep, Abdi-Wali is known and liked for her community work, taking notes on issues from housing repairs to e-bikes blocking roads. But one college lecturer, who had a run-in with their employer over Gaza, said they will 'never vote Labour again'. Polanski takes a big risk here after sliding in the polls, while Labour's challenge is to show how Burnham's positive policies can reach the left. The byelection result will be a key indicator of Burnham's ability to unite the left and fend off the Green challenge.
