The Green Party has decided to devote only limited resources to next month's Makerfield byelection, a move that could significantly boost Andy Burnham's chances of winning the seat, the Guardian has learned.
Scaled-Back Campaign Strategy
Senior Green figures have indicated that the party will instead focus more on the byelection for the Greater Manchester mayoralty, which will be triggered if Burnham is returned to parliament. The party is contesting the Makerfield seat, having announced Sarah Wakefield as its replacement candidate for the 18 June contest after the initial choice, Chris Kennedy, stood down following revelations about social media posts.
This strategy would involve “taking the fight to Reform and asking which version of Andy Burnham is going to show up,” with a focus on the Labour candidate’s positions on electoral reform and public ownership of utilities, one senior Green said. However, following a lively internal debate, there will not be a repeat of the mass mobilisation of activists seen in February’s Gorton and Denton byelection, where the party overcame a 13,000-plus Labour majority to win the seat.
Demographic Challenges
While Makerfield is also in Greater Manchester, it is some distance from Gorton and Denton and demographically very different, making it a much greater challenge for the Greens to win. A number of senior party figures, including Caroline Lucas, the Greens’ first MP, and Jonathan Bartley, who co-led the party with Lucas, have called for Zack Polanski, the leader of the party in England and Wales, to scale back any campaign, particularly if Burnham commits to electoral reform.
In a letter over the weekend, Bartley stated that given the seat is unlikely to be won and a split vote on the left could help Reform UK take the constituency, should Burnham commit to proportional representation, then “on this unique occasion, we don’t think Greens should run a full campaign against him.” Such views have provoked anger among some leftwing members who joined after Polanski became leader, overseeing a near quadrupling of membership. They argue that the Greens want to replace Labour and should try to defeat Burnham.
Internal Party Dynamics
While the campaign is being run by the local party with significant independence, a full-blown effort would require the support and resources of the central party under Polanski. It is understood that the decision has been made not to pursue this. “I doubt we are going to be bussing people in to Makerfield to door-knock,” one party source said. Another senior figure noted that the team around Polanski realised there was more potential harm than benefit: “They know they can’t win, and it would be terrible to be blamed for letting Reform in.”
Polling and Candidate Changes
In another potential boost to Burnham’s chances, a constituency poll in Makerfield indicated a possible split on the right. Restore Britain, the far-right organisation formed by ex-Reform MP Rupert Lowe, was shown coming third on 7%, behind Labour and Reform, based on a sample size of 369 voters after undecided respondents were removed.
On Tuesday, the Greens announced that Sarah Wakefield, elected earlier this month to Manchester city council, would stand for the party. The 38-year-old charity director is currently on maternity leave. Her candidacy came after the original candidate, Chris Kennedy, was announced last Tuesday but dropped out just nine hours later, citing “personal and family reasons”. The Times reported that it had approached Kennedy about social media posts he had shared regarding an attack on Jewish ambulances in north London in April. An Instagram video shared by Kennedy described the arrests of two men over the incident as “total bullshit to keep the false flag flying”.
