Ukraine's Strategic Resilience Amid Russia's Stalled Invasion
As the Russian invasion of Ukraine enters its fifth year, the conflict has already surpassed the duration of the entire eastern front campaign in World War II. Despite the prolonged warfare, Russia's territorial gains have been remarkably minimal, with recent advances measured in mere meters per day. According to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Russian forces are gaining approximately 70 meters daily in Pokrovsk and 23 meters in Kupiansk. Over the course of 2025, these incremental movements have resulted in the capture of about 1,865 square miles, representing less than 1% of Ukraine's total land area.
Ukraine's Counteroffensive and Strategic Clarification
Contrary to narratives of a slow-motion defeat, Ukraine is actively refining its military strategy and achieving modest successes on the battlefield. A notable Ukrainian counterattack north of Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia province has reclaimed an estimated 40 square miles this month. This operation benefited from Elon Musk's Starlink system blocking Russian soldiers from using satellite communications within Ukraine. Additionally, Ukraine recaptured Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region last December, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visiting the town weeks after Russia claimed its capture.
Christina Harward of the Institute for the Study of War emphasizes, "The Kremlin is trying to create a narrative that Ukraine is on the verge of collapse. It's completely false. What we are seeing are small-scale liberations by Ukraine, taking advantage of winter weather and the blocking of Starlink."
Diplomatic Misdirection and Military Performance
Russia's diplomatic efforts, including demands for Ukraine to withdraw from key areas like Kramatorsk and Sloviansk in Donetsk, highlight its military struggles. A NATO intelligence official recently estimated that Russia cannot capture the Donetsk region within the next 18 months, with potential costs exceeding 600,000 Russian casualties. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's references to alleged agreements in Anchorage involving former US President Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have not translated into enforced policies, amid strong Ukrainian and European opposition.
Orysia Lutsevych, a Ukraine expert at Chatham House, notes, "The worst-case scenario didn't happen. The US is selling arms to Ukraine, still supplying intelligence, and whatever the pressure, it is not so strong that Kyiv has to concede."
Civilian Hardships and Infrastructure Crisis
Ukraine faces severe civilian challenges, with over a million people lacking electricity, heating, and water during a harsh winter where temperatures have plummeted to -20°C. In Kyiv alone, 2,600 buildings are without power or heating, particularly affecting the eastern left bank. Residents report indoor temperatures dropping to 5-6°C due to systematic Russian bombing campaigns, sometimes described as kholodomor or death by cold.
The failure of Western allies to produce sufficient air defense missiles has exacerbated the situation. Statistical analysis from the Institute for Science and International Security shows that the proportion of armed Shahed drones hitting targets increased from 6% in January to 30% in May, remaining at 29% by December.
Military Dynamics and Exhaustion Factors
Ukraine has adopted a more aggressive military approach under Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, aiming to eliminate 50,000 Russian soldiers monthly—up from the current casualty rate of about 35,000, with NATO estimating 20,000-25,000 killed. This target is designed to exceed Russia's recruitment rate of 30,000-35,000 per month, potentially forcing Moscow into risky mobilizations or diplomatic compromises.
However, Ukraine contends with significant military exhaustion. Fedorov acknowledged 200,000 Ukrainians absent without leave, unable to endure frontline strains. Drones cause an estimated 80% of casualties, operating up to 15 miles deep and limiting troop movements without weather cover.
Jade McGlynn, a research fellow at King's College, expresses concern, "I don't see a strategy in Europe, and the US has its eggs in the peace process, but there is no process if Russia is not engaging properly."
Despite relentless attacks, Russia's strategy has yielded minimal strategic gains, and Ukraine's population remains resilient against Russian dominance, with no imminent shift in battlefield dynamics favoring Moscow.
