The Trump administration has once again brought the strategic Arctic island of Greenland into sharp focus, reiterating a long-standing American ambition to gain control of the mineral-rich, self-governing Danish territory. With the White House stating that using the US military remains "always an option," analysts are scrutinising the realistic pathways—and profound consequences—of Washington's territorial designs.
Diplomatic and Financial Avenues: Purchase and Persuasion
The notion of the United States purchasing Greenland is not new. Historical records show the idea was first floated in 1867, reconsidered in 1910, and followed by a formal, secret offer of $100 million from the Truman administration in 1946. While US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has reportedly told Congress the goal is a purchase, both Copenhagen and Nuuk have consistently stated the island is not for sale.
Beyond a simple transaction, the principle of self-determination presents a formidable legal barrier. Under Greenland's 2009 self-rule law, its 57,000 inhabitants hold the right to decide their future. A January poll indicated 85% oppose becoming part of the US, with only 6% in favour. Consequently, Washington has embarked on a parallel strategy of persuasion, reopening its consulate in Nuuk in 2020 and appointing a special envoy last month to foster ties and investment.
There is also suspicion in Denmark of covert American support for Greenland's growing independence movement. A successful independence referendum, approved by the Danish parliament, could open the door for a "compact of free association" (Cofa) deal. Similar to US arrangements with Pacific nations, this would grant Greenland independence and economic benefits while giving the US military extensive operational rights.
Military Treaties and the Unthinkable Option
Amidst the tension, a key point is often overlooked: the US already enjoys wide military access. A 1951 defence agreement with Denmark, updated in 2004 with Greenland's input, allows the US to "construct, install, maintain and operate" bases across the territory and control movements of ships and aircraft. Copenhagen has signalled willingness to expand the current US presence, confined to the Pituffik space base with about 500 personnel.
Furthermore, a separate December 2023 agreement grants the US unhindered access to Danish airbases. Despite this, some US analysts provocatively suggest a military takeover would not be difficult in principle, given Greenland's lack of a territorial army. However, Danish experts vehemently disagree, citing Greenland's brutal weather and enhanced Danish defences.
Potential Fallout: The End of NATO Trust?
The repercussions of an aggressive US move would be seismic. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has stated unequivocally that an attack on Greenland, which is covered by Denmark's NATO membership, would mean the end of the military alliance. Such an action would be entirely illegal and would shatter post-Second World War security frameworks, instantly evaporating allied trust and intelligence sharing.
Jacob Kaarsbo, a former Danish defence intelligence analyst, warned of determined opposition, stating, "I hope the Europeans can convince the US that we will indeed shoot back... US soldiers would come back to the US in bodybags." While the unpredictable nature of the Trump presidency means few scenarios can be entirely ruled out, the most plausible outcomes appear to be a long-term diplomatic push for a strategic partnership, rather than a forced acquisition that would rupture the Western alliance.
