Russian Shadow Fleet Operates with Impunity in English Channel, Raising Fears of Naval Conflict
In the misty waters of the English Channel, less than two hours from Dover by fishing boat, some of Russia's most powerful weapons in its war against Ukraine are hiding in plain sight. On a February morning, Sky News witnessed tankers carrying hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Russian oil cruising past, defying Western sanctions, embargoes, and price caps. Dozens of these vessels pass through the Channel monthly, part of a "shadow fleet" of up to 800 ships that continue to funnel oil revenues funding the conflict in Ukraine.
Daily Passage of Sanctioned Tankers Under Allies' Noses
Despite recent UK government announcements of fresh sanctions against the Russian oil trade, evidence from a day on the water shows the shadow fleet operates with apparent impunity right under the noses of Kyiv's allies. Skipper Matt Coker, who usually takes sea fishing parties out on the Portia, noted that Russian ships and oil tankers are a routine sight in the world's busiest shipping lane. "When you see these Russian ships and these oil tankers, you know, it's a regular occurrence. To be honest, no one really takes any notice," he said.
Sky News tracked three tankers—the Rigel, the Hyperion, and the Kousai—from the Gulf of Finland, where they loaded oil at Russian Baltic ports, intercepting them as they passed the narrowest point of the Dover Straits. Up close in a rising swell, the scale of these vessels is unavoidable, each telling a story about both the impact and limits of Western action.
Opaque Operations and Flag-Switching Tactics
The Rigel, a Suezmax-class tanker over 270 meters long with a capacity of one million barrels, carried oil worth around $55 million loaded at Primorsk. It sails under a Cameroon flag, owned and managed by a company in the Seychelles, and is sanctioned by the EU, UK, and Canada. This prevents it from using port facilities in sanctioning countries but not from heading to its next known stop, Port Said at the head of the Suez Canal. Since the invasion of Ukraine, the bulk of Russian oil has been sold to China and India at significant discounts.
Next, the Hyperion appeared, sanctioned by the UK, EU, and US, sailing under a Russian flag with its name marked in Cyrillic. As recently as December, it was under a Sierra Leone flag, switching to evade a US naval blockade in the Caribbean after delivering to Venezuela. Flag-switching is a routine tactic in the shadow fleet, where opaque ownership and unclear insurance are common, raising serious concerns given many vessels are ageing and poorly maintained.
Limited Enforcement and Growing Market Response
While the US has taken direct military action against shadow fleet tankers linked to Venezuela, seizing at least seven since last year, and French paramilitaries seized a vessel in the Mediterranean last month, British interventions have focused on insurance. As the Kousai passed, the coastguard demanded proof of insurance via VHF radio, asking the captain to email documentation within 24 hours—a response that highlights the challenges of enforcement.
Sanctions have reduced the value of Russian oil, though not the volumes moved. The growth of the shadow fleet is a market response to tightening sanctions, with over 60% of Russian crude exported on these vessels, according to Pamela Munger, head of European market analysis at Vortexa. She explained that sanctioned vessels often make multiple ship-to-ship transfers to disguise oil origins before discharging to non-sanctioned vessels for end buyers.
Economic Impact and Rising Tensions
Data from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air shows shadow fleet numbers grew post-sanctions, but oil volumes remained constant. Prices have fallen, with Russian oil now competing with Iranian and Venezuelan crude in the "distressed" sanctioned market, cutting Kremlin revenues. David Fyfe, chief economist at Argus Media, noted that Russian Urals crude is pricing $27 below North Sea Brent, compared to $2-$3 below in 2021, reducing oil revenues by around 25% year-on-year and up to 50% in January alone.
This economic squeeze could tighten further, with pressure for a more robust response from European nations, including the UK. Under maritime law, vessels have the right of innocent passage with legitimate flags, but the UK government has examined legal grounds for detaining Russian tankers under the Sanctions and Money Laundering Act.
Warning of Militarized Confrontation at Sea
Professor Michael Clarke, Sky News security and defence analyst, warned that Britain and its allies may get tougher with Russian ships, even if escorted. "When that happens, I think we're heading probably sometime this year for some sort of militarised confrontation at sea," he said. A Ministry of Defence spokesperson stated that deterring, disrupting, and degrading the Russian shadow fleet is a priority, with insurance documents requested from over 600 vessels.
The owners of the Rigel, Hyperion, and Kousai have been contacted for comment, as the shadow fleet continues to challenge Western sanctions in the English Channel, raising the stakes for potential naval conflict.
