Russia's Military Capacity to Endure Ukraine War Through 2026, According to Thinktank Analysis
A prominent military thinktank has issued a stark assessment, indicating that Russia possesses the capability to continue its full-scale invasion of Ukraine throughout 2026, despite emerging economic and manpower challenges. The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) highlights that Moscow's war economy, bolstered by significant defense investments, shows little indication of weakening as the conflict enters its fifth year.
Sustained Defense Spending and Economic Reorientation
Bastian Giegerich, director general of the IISS, emphasized there is "little indication" that Russia's ability to wage war against Ukraine is diminishing. The thinktank's report reveals that Russia allocated at least $186 billion to defense in 2025, representing a 3% increase in real terms and accounting for 7.3% of its GDP. This proportion is more than double that of the United States and approximately three times the level spent by the United Kingdom.
Fenella McGerty, a defense finance expert with the IISS, noted that while Russia's economy is slowing, potentially leading to a decline in real-terms military spending in 2026, this must be viewed against a backdrop of sharp growth in recent years. She stressed that military spending "had doubled in real terms since 2021," enabling Russia to heavily invest in military equipment and recruitment to sustain relentless ground and air assaults on Ukraine.
Manpower Challenges and Casualty Estimates
Nigel Gould Davies, a Russia expert at the thinktank and former UK ambassador to Belarus, pointed to growing signs that Russia's monthly recruitment rates are beginning to fall short of battlefield losses. However, Moscow retains the ability to reduce casualty rates by scaling back offensive operations across the Ukrainian frontline. Gould Davies warned that if this trend persists, it could force the Kremlin into a "moment of truth," potentially risking a second enforced mobilization similar to the social unrest seen in September 2022.
Russia currently recruits an estimated 30,000 to 35,000 individuals monthly, but Gould Davies expressed concerns over declining troop quality, as recruiters increasingly turn to individuals with issues such as alcoholism, drug addiction, and health problems. Casualty estimates vary, with UK Ministry of Defence figures suggesting 35,030 casualties in December and 31,713 in January, slightly lower than the nearly 40,000 per month cited by Western officials in recent briefings.
Technological Advancements and NATO Implications
The thinktank also reported that Russia is leveraging the war to develop new battle tactics, missiles, and attack drones, including a modernized Shahed-136 drone capable of striking targets across Europe with a range of up to 2,000 kilometers. Giegerich underscored the urgent need for NATO to increase investments in missile defense and anti-drone systems, a necessity highlighted by incidents such as 21 Russian drones crossing into Poland last September, which forced airport closures and shelter-in-place orders in three regions.
In response to the growing Russian threat, European NATO allies and Canada pledged to raise defense budgets to 3.5% by 2035. However, the IISS cautioned in its annual review, The Military Balance, that achieving this goal will require "sustained and significant investments" that many allies may struggle to meet, potentially necessitating spending cuts and trade-offs in other areas.
Long-Term Dependence on US Support
Giegerich further noted that Europe will take "well into the 2030s" to reduce its military dependence on the United States, due to ongoing reliance on an unpredictable White House for critical resources such as military intelligence, cloud computing, and space assets. Improving air defense capabilities remains a priority for NATO as it grapples with the evolving threats posed by Russia's military modernization efforts.
