Donald Trump's approach to Iran has devolved into what Moustafa Bayoumi, a Guardian US columnist, calls 'kindergarten diplomacy.' The president's stop-and-start threats, coupled with a deeply divided administration, have left the US without a coherent strategy to end a war that many argue should never have begun. As of late July 2025, Trump has repeatedly threatened massive strikes on Iran, only to back down within hours or days, reflecting a pattern of indecision that has frustrated allies and emboldened critics.
A pattern of threats and retreats
On 23 July, Trump told reporters that Iran hadn't received 'enough pain yet' and warned, 'I am considering a massive attack. Bigger than ever before.' He claimed he was 'close to making a decision,' but by 27 July, he had called it off. Days later, on 31 July, he said, 'We'll be hitting them very hard. At some point, they're going to say: We just can't take it any more,' only to reverse course the next day.
This pattern has been consistent since the US and Israel launched their latest war on Iran on 28 February. On 21 March, Trump threatened to hit Iranian power plants—a potential war crime—unless Iran opened the Strait of Hormuz. He delayed that plan by five days, then another ten, before issuing a new threat. On 7 April, he wrote, 'A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again,' but walked back that genocidal threat just ten hours later. On 17 May, he warned, 'For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won't be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!' The next day, he claimed Gulf leaders had asked him to 'hold off on our planned Military attack.'
Indecision as doctrine
Bayoumi argues that Trump's behavior is not a strategy but a reflection of his inability to make difficult decisions. 'Leadership is needed when difficult decisions must be made, but Trump is not capable of such resolve,' he writes. Instead, Trump seems driven by the last person he spoke to. When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the Oval Office on 21 July, he presented three options: a negotiated deal, continuing the blockade and economic pressures, or a massive strike, according to a senior Israeli official quoted by Reuters. Two days later, Trump threatened a massive strike, then called it off, then threatened again. When Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called on 1 August to argue for de-escalation, Trump backed down again.
Bayoumi draws a parallel to Richard Nixon's 'madman theory,' where Nixon projected irrationality to intimidate the Soviet Union. Trump, whether knowingly or not, is turning indecision into his own presidential doctrine. 'Such indecision is probably in part a reflection of Trump's unflagging desire to please influential people around him,' Bayoumi notes.
A divided administration
The administration is split on Iran policy, with Vice-President JD Vance emerging as the most skeptical in Trump's inner circle. Vance, who is 'ever aware of the political winds,' is said to be watching rising rightwing criticism of Israel. On The Joe Rogan Experience in mid-July, Vance claimed an Israeli government campaign was manipulating US public opinion to prolong the war. 'There are some people within their system, we know beyond a shadow of a doubt, who are manipulating and trying to change American public opinion to keep the war going on indefinitely,' he said.
In contrast, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Lara Trump on Fox News that the Iranian regime 'has never faced a president like President Trump, which is someone that actually takes action.' Meanwhile, Jared Kushner, along with Vance and Steve Witkoff, favors reducing the conflict to lower gas prices and limit risks to US forces, but only until after the midterm elections, when the war could be ramped up again, according to Israel Hayom.
Military and political fallout
The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen Dan Caine, who initially counseled against the war, now warns that air defense interceptor stockpiles are dangerously low, putting US military personnel at greater risk. The Memorandum of Understanding signed with Iran in June has drawn fierce Republican opposition, with Senator Bill Cassidy calling it 'the worst foreign policy blunder in decades.' Even Trump loyalist Ted Cruz criticized it, saying, 'The president is receiving some very poor advice on this deal.' A Politico poll shows only about a third of Maga voters believe the war is worth the economic cost.
CNN reports that US military leadership is 'basically out of ideas' and has solicited 'new creative and unconventional ways to pressure and punish Iran' via a crowdsourcing-style email. Trump has been considering strikes akin to a 'fireworks' display,' which would offer a symbolic victory without achieving his initial aim of ridding Iran of its nuclear program.
A call for serious leadership
Bayoumi concludes that a responsible president would make a brave decision to end the war, however painful, and explain it to the nation. 'We, unfortunately, do not have serious leaders. And so we are left with kindergarten diplomacy,' he writes.
