Labour has taken the lead in a national opinion poll for the first time in 16 months, following Andy Burnham's first week as Prime Minister. The More in Common survey, conducted between July 24 and 27, shows Labour four points ahead of Reform UK, ending a streak of Reform dominance since March 2025.
Poll details and significance
The poll marks Labour's highest vote share since early 2024 and the first time since March 2025 that the party has topped a More in Common poll. Reform UK and the Green Party both dropped to their lowest vote shares in months. Luke Tryl, director of More in Common, noted that while it is 'just one poll,' momentum appears to be on Burnham's side. He said: 'Labour now leads for the first time since March of last year, and holds their highest vote share since the early months of this government in 2024. And with both Reform and the Green Party dropping to their lowest vote share in months, it seems that this early focus on the cost of living has appealed to voters that Labour has lost across left and right.'
Burnham's first-week policies
Burnham spent his first week in office announcing measures to provide 'breathing space' on the cost of living. These included a £2 bus fare cap for England, removing VAT on electricity bills, and a 20% cut in business rates for pubs, clubs, and small music venues. The early focus on economic relief appears to have resonated with voters.
Reform UK's struggles
Reform UK has faced intense scrutiny over its finances, including a Parliamentary Standards investigation into leader Nigel Farage for failing to declare a £5 million 'gift' from crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne. Farage resigned as MP for Clacton to trigger a by-election, framing it as a 'people versus the establishment' fight, but the move backfired when all other parties declined to participate. His main rival appears to be novelty candidate Count Binface.
Outlook
Tryl cautioned that it is 'too early to see if this lead in the polls will be sustainable as Burnham makes his first moves gets further into the practicalities of governing.' However, he added that 'for the first time in a while, it seems that the government's electoral fortunes could be lifting.'
