The UK is confronting a severe and early winter flu outbreak, with health chiefs warning that thousands more could be hospitalised as a mutated virus takes hold. Current daily hospitalisation figures have already shattered records for this time of year, sparking fears the NHS faces one of its toughest winters on record.
Record Numbers and a Mutating Threat
Official data paints a stark picture. Last week, an average of 1,717 flu patients occupied hospital beds in England each day, with 69 of those in critical care. This represents a dramatic 56% increase compared to the same week in 2024, which saw 1,098 patients. The scale of the surge becomes even clearer when compared to previous years: numbers are far above the 243 patients recorded at this point in 2023 and the 772 in 2022.
The outbreak is being fuelled by the A/H3N2 strain, specifically a mutated variant known as Subclade K. This variant evolved over the summer, enabling it to better evade immunity built up from previous infections or vaccinations. With Christmas socialising poised to accelerate transmission, experts fear the peak of this wave could eclipse last year's severe season.
Vaccination Gap and NHS on Alert
A critical concern underpinning the crisis is the shortfall in vaccination coverage. Despite NHS efforts, rates are below government targets for several key groups. Latest figures from 30 November 2025 show:
- 70% of those aged over 65 have been vaccinated.
- Only 42% of pregnant women have received the jab.
- Just 40% of two to three year olds are vaccinated.
Professor Julian Redhead, NHS national medical director for urgent and emergency care, stated that flu cases are now ‘incredibly high’ and the figures ‘confirm our deepest concerns’. He warned that ballooning cases, combined with upcoming industrial action, could stretch staff ‘close to breaking point’.
This warning comes as resident doctors in England are set to strike for five days from 17 to 22 December, following earlier action in November, threatening to intensify pressure during the festive period.
Urgent Call for Action Before Christmas
Health officials are issuing a final plea for eligible people to get vaccinated immediately. Dr Jamie Lopez Bernal, a consultant epidemiologist at the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), emphasised the time lag for immunity to build. ‘The best defence against this is a vaccine, but time is running out as it can take up to two weeks from vaccination for your body to build maximum protection,’ he said.
Separate UKHSA statistics reveal the rate of hospital admissions has jumped to 7.8 per 100,000 people, nearly double the rate at this time last year. The most vulnerable groups are those aged 85 and over, followed by 75-84 year-olds and children under four.
With last year's peak hitting 5,408 patients in early January, there is a palpable fear that this year's total could match or even exceed that, with some projections suggesting up to 8,000 patients could be hospitalised. The message from the NHS is unequivocal: with just weeks until Christmas, getting vaccinated is the most effective step to protect yourself and relieve the strain on health services.
