NHS Sounds Alarm Over Early and Severe Flu Season
The NHS is bracing for what its leaders warn could be the most challenging winter in its history, as the flu season has arrived unusually early and with significant force. Health bosses have issued an urgent 'flu jab SOS', urging eligible individuals to get vaccinated without delay.
What's Driving the Flu Surge?
Experts from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) point to a specific, evolved strain of influenza A as the primary culprit. This year, the H3N2 subtype is dominant, and a particular subclade known as 'K' has undergone more mutation than anticipated over the summer.
This process, known as antigenic drift, means the current circulating virus is quite different from the strain included in this season's vaccine, which was selected back in February. The surge was first observed in teenagers and young adults, subsequently spreading to younger children, with H3N2 identified in 84% of cases.
Warning signs from the Southern Hemisphere, often a reliable indicator for the UK, were stark. Australia recently endured its worst flu season on record with over 410,000 cases, while Japan in the Asia-Pacific region has already declared a flu epidemic.
How Severe is the Situation?
The data presents a concerning picture. The current rate of hospital admissions for flu in England stands at 3.9 per 100,000 people for the week beginning 3 November, a significant increase from the rate of 1.2 per 100,000 during the same period last year.
The threat is underscored by last winter's mortality figures. The UKHSA estimates that 7,757 people in England died from flu last winter, more than double the 3,555 deaths recorded the previous year. Tragically, child deaths involving flu also rose from 34 to 53.
Jim Mackey, chief executive of NHS England, did not mince words, stating, 'Since stepping into this role, the thought of a long, drawn-out flu season has kept me awake at night. And, unfortunately, it looks like that fear is becoming reality.' He confirmed that from December through to March, NHS hospitals are expected to be operating at full capacity.
Vaccine Effectiveness and the Urgent Call to Action
Despite the challenges posed by the mutated strain, the flu vaccine remains a crucial line of defence. UKHSA analysis shows the current vaccine is 70-75% effective at preventing hospital attendance in children aged two to 17, and 30-40% effective in adults.
Dr Jamie Lopez Bernal, a consultant epidemiologist for immunisation at UKHSA, expressed confidence that the vaccine will still help protect the most vulnerable. He also emphasised the importance of good respiratory hygiene and minimising contact with others when displaying symptoms.
So far this autumn, the NHS has delivered 14.4 million flu vaccines, over 160,000 more than at the same point last year. However, with the season intensifying, health officials are making a final push.
Duncan Burton, chief nursing officer for England, issued a direct appeal: 'With just weeks left to ensure best protection against the worst of the flu season, we are issuing an urgent SOS to the eligible people who have yet to get jabbed this year.'
Eligible groups include everyone aged 65 and over, pregnant women, those with certain clinical conditions, frontline health and social care workers, and children. Parents are strongly encouraged to complete school consent forms or book appointments for young children to ensure protection ahead of the Christmas period. Vaccinations are available through GP practices, local pharmacies, and community clinic drop-in centres.
