The National Health Service is preparing for what leaders describe as one of its most challenging winters ever, following an unprecedented October that saw accident and emergency departments and ambulance services experience their busiest month on record.
Record-Breaking A&E Delays and Ambulance Pressures
Startling new figures from NHS England reveal the scale of the crisis already unfolding within the health service. Up to 40% of patients attending A&E departments waited longer than four hours to be seen last month. The number of people experiencing these delays surged from 129,004 in September to 142,734 in October, indicating a rapidly worsening situation as winter approaches.
The data paints an even grimmer picture for those requiring hospital admission. Among patients admitted to hospital via A&E, one in ten faced waits of 12 hours or longer for a bed. This translated to 54,314 patients in October, a significant increase from 44,765 the previous month.
Cancer Treatment Delays and Industrial Action
The pressures extend beyond emergency care into critical services like cancer treatment. Performance against cancer targets continues to decline. In September, only 73.9% of patients with suspected cancer received a diagnosis or had cancer ruled out within the target of 28 days, down from 74.6% in August and below the national target of 75%.
Furthermore, the proportion of patients beginning their first definitive cancer treatment within 62 days fell from 69.1% to 67.9% over the same period. These worrying trends emerge as thousands of resident doctors across England prepare for a five-day strike beginning at 7am on Friday, which is expected to further disrupt services.
Conflicting Views on NHS Recovery
Health Secretary Wes Streeting pointed to a slight decline in the overall treatment backlog as evidence of improvement. An estimated 7.39 million treatments were waiting to be carried out at the end of September, relating to 6.24 million patients, down marginally from 7.41 million treatments and 6.25 million patients at the end of August.
"The past year is the first time in 15 years that waiting lists have fallen," Mr Streeting stated. "There's a long way to go, but the NHS is now on the road to recovery."
However, NHS national medical director Meghana Pandit delivered a starkly different assessment, warning that services would be pushed to capacity this winter. "It is fantastic news that the health service managed to get the waiting list down in September, but there's no doubt NHS staff will be approaching their limits this winter," she cautioned.
Ms Pandit highlighted additional concerns, noting that "flu is peaking early and looking like it will be long lasting, while industrial action starting on Friday comes on the back of the busiest October in A&E in NHS history."
Tim Gardner, assistant director of policy at the Health Foundation, echoed these concerns, stating the figures "present a challenging outlook for the NHS, particularly as it heads into what NHS leaders have warned is likely to be one of the toughest winters the health service has faced."
To help ease the immense pressure on services, health officials are urging the public to get their flu, COVID-19, and RSV vaccinations, use the NHS 111 helpline for non-urgent help, and reserve 999 calls and A&E visits for genuine life-threatening emergencies only.
