The prison population in England and Wales has doubled since 1993, even though crime has fallen by more than half, sparking a fresh crisis as Andy Burnham proposes early release for women prisoners and reforms to indefinite IPP sentences. The Independent Sentencing Review, commissioned by Labour, finds that the surge in imprisonment is not due to rising criminality but a disproportionate focus on punishment over rehabilitation.
Crime Down, Prison Population Up
In 1993, there were 44,000 prisoners in England and Wales. By 2012, that number had almost doubled to 87,000, and it remains around that level today. Yet the Crime Survey for England and Wales shows headline crime peaked at 19,786 incidents in 1995 and has been steadily declining. The latest figures from March this year record just 9,615 incidents – and excluding fraud and computer misuse, which were rare in 1995, the number falls to 4,333, less than a quarter of the 1995 level.
Despite this dramatic drop in crime, the prison population has not followed suit. This paradox lies at the heart of the current overcrowding crisis, which has forced the government to consider emergency measures.
Burnham’s Proposals: Early Release for Women and IPP Reforms
As the crisis deepens, Andy Burnham, the new Prime Minister, has proposed releasing more women prisoners early and tackling the controversial Imprisonment for Public Protection (IPP) sentences, which have left thousands of inmates with no fixed release date. These proposals echo the early release scheme introduced by Keir Starmer’s government in 2024, which was a temporary fix that failed to address the root causes.
Burnham has confirmed that inmates convicted of the most serious offences will be excluded from any early release scheme, and he has said he has 'pushed to the very limits of what is possible to do' to prevent the prison system from 'collapsing within months'.
The Independent Sentencing Review: A Damning Indictment
The Independent Sentencing Review, commissioned by Labour after prisons narrowly avoided collapse, sheds light on why the system is in this state. It finds a significant decline in the use of non-custodial sentences, such as community service, since 2010, and a significant increase in the average length of custodial sentences.
The review states that this shift is 'not the consequence of a considered strategy as the most effective measure to reduce crime'. Instead, 'sentencing has focused disproportionately on punishment', with politicians and the media promoting the idea that 'the only form of punishment that counts is imprisonment'.
Political and Media Influence on Sentencing
The review’s findings point to a broader cultural problem. Politicians, seeking to appear tough on crime, have repeatedly called for longer sentences, while media coverage often amplifies public demand for harsh punishment. This has created a 'doom loop' where each new crime prompts calls for tougher sentencing, further overcrowding prisons without reducing reoffending.
According to the review, this approach is not evidence-based. Community sentences, when properly funded, can be more effective at reducing reoffending than short prison terms. Yet they have been consistently underused and under-resourced.
The Human Cost of Overcrowding
The consequences of overcrowding are severe. Prisons are operating at or above capacity, leading to poor conditions for inmates and staff, increased violence, and limited access to rehabilitation programmes. The early release schemes, while necessary to prevent a total breakdown, have been criticised for releasing prisoners without adequate support, increasing the risk of reoffending.
Women prisoners are particularly affected, as many are serving short sentences for non-violent offences, often related to poverty or mental health issues. Releasing them early could ease pressure, but without community support, they may simply cycle back into the system.
What Needs to Change?
The Sentencing Act 2026 aims to reverse some of the trends identified by the review, but changing the broader public and political attitude towards punishment is more challenging. The review calls for a fundamental rethink of what the justice system is for, arguing that its primary purpose should be to reduce crime and protect the public, not to mete out retribution.
As Burnham navigates this crisis, he will need to balance public opinion with evidence-based policy. The question is whether he can break the doom loop and implement lasting reforms, or whether history will repeat itself once again.
