Japan, the world's fifth-largest emitter of greenhouse gases, is embarking on a controversial strategic shift in its energy policy as it strives to meet a 2050 net zero target. The new plan, which has drawn criticism from environmental campaigners, calls for a "maximisation" of nuclear power alongside a significant expansion of renewables.
From Nuclear Disaster to Renewable Ambition in Fukushima
The stark contrast of Japan's energy future is visible from the mountain ridges of Fukushima prefecture. Here, the sweeping blades of 46 wind turbines at the Abukuma windfarm—the nation's largest onshore facility—turn against the skyline. In the distance, the outline of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant serves as a sombre reminder of the 2011 triple meltdown triggered by a magnitude-9.0 earthquake and a 15-metre tsunami.
That disaster, which cost an estimated $35bn (£26bn) in decommissioning costs so far, led to the closure of dozens of reactors nationwide. This forced Japan into heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels; last year it was the world’s second-largest importer of liquefied fossil gas and third-largest importer of coal by volume.
Yet Fukushima itself is now determined to lead a renewable revolution. The prefecture has set an ambitious goal of achieving 100% renewable energy by 2040, with a midterm target of 70% by 2030. "Everyone in the prefecture is determined to reach the target," said Takayuki Hirano of Fukushima Fukko Furyoku. "People have negative memories of nuclear power and Fukushima, and they’re still wrestling with that burden."
The Government's Controversial Energy Plan
Japan's latest strategic energy plan, previewed in early 2024, marks a significant departure from post-Fukushima sentiment. It envisions nuclear power accounting for around 20% of total energy output by 2040. To achieve this, approximately 14 reactors have been restarted, with the assumption that 30 will be in full operation by the target date.
The plan also aims for renewables to supply 40-50% of energy (up from just under a third in 2023) and seeks to reduce coal-fired power from 63% to 30-40%. This comes as Japan reports some progress: emissions fell by 4% to a record low in the year to March 2024, aided by lower energy consumption and increased use of renewables and nuclear.
However, the nuclear pivot has proven contentious. At the recent COP30 climate summit, Japan was awarded the "Fossil of the Day" by the Climate Action Network for its slow decarbonisation progress. The network criticised Japan's promotion of carbon capture and storage as measures "dressed up as solutions". Further controversy arose when Environment Minister Hirotaka Ishihara indicated Tokyo would not support a proposed global roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels, putting it at odds with about 80 other nations.
Local Innovation and Global Pressure
Back in Fukushima, innovation extends beyond wind. In the hot spring resort of Tsuchiyu Onsen, a geothermal plant harnesses subterranean steam to generate 440kW of electricity—enough for about 800 homes. "We are an important part of Fukushima’s 100% renewable energy target," said Takayuki Kato, CEO of Genki Up Tsuchiyu. The prefecture is on track, with renewables now accounting for almost 60% of its power generation, a dramatic increase from 23% at the time of the 2011 disaster.
Yet, as the world's fifth-biggest emitter—with 961 million tonnes of annual CO2 emissions and 7.77 metric tonnes per capita—Japan faces immense international pressure. Campaigners like Masayoshi Iyoda of 350.org argue that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi must realise that "energy efficiency and renewable energy represent the fastest path" to energy self-sufficiency.
The path forward for Japan is a complex balancing act. It seeks to ensure energy security and economic stability while meeting its pledge to reduce emissions by 46% from 2013 levels by 2030 and ultimately reach net zero by 2050. The success of projects in Fukushima, from the vast Abukuma windfarm to local geothermal plants, offers a glimpse of a potential renewable future, even as the government recommits to the nuclear power that once failed the region so catastrophically.
