El Niño is strengthening and the risks of a historic event capable of supercharging extreme weather worldwide are rising, according to the latest analysis from the US National Weather Service. Forecasters now estimate an 81% chance that a very strong El Niño—one that would rank among the largest events in the historical record going back to 1950—will develop before the end of this year. There is almost near certainty, a 97% probability, that these conditions will persist through spring 2027.
Record-breaking trajectory
Climate scientist Daniel Swain noted in a broadcast discussion on Thursday that observed conditions are already in record-breaking territory. “El Niño so far, for the calendar date, is as strong or stronger than we’ve ever seen before, and that is a trajectory that is expected to continue,” he said. “The odds and the magnitudes just keep rising.”
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon characterized by warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It can create huge atmospheric upheaval, altering jet streams and flipping precipitation patterns. This fuels more severe storms in some parts of the world while desiccating others.
Potential impacts of a super El Niño
Each El Niño event is unique with considerable variability, and many factors drive weather. But climate scientists worldwide warn that a so-called “super El Niño”—driving sea surface temperatures at least 2°C (3.6°F) higher than average—would have enormous power to wreak havoc and could set the stage for record global heat. Its effects would layer on top of impacts already fueled by the climate crisis.
A super El Niño in 2015 brought severe drought in Ethiopia, water supply shortages in Puerto Rico, and smashed records after unleashing a vicious hurricane season in the central-north Pacific, according to US federal scientists. The cycle tends to create drought and heat across Australia, southern and central Africa, India, and parts of South America, including the Amazon rainforest. Heavy precipitation, meanwhile, could hit the southern tier of the US, parts of the Middle East, and south-central Asia.
Already devastating heat
Forecasts that global temperatures will climb higher in the coming year come amid an already devastatingly hot spring and summer. Western Europe baked through what became the hottest June on record, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), as several countries broke all-time records. “June 2026 underscored how profoundly the climate is changing,” said Dr Samantha Burgess, deputy director of C3S. “The result is increasingly intense heatwaves, a persistently warm ocean, and growing risks for people, ecosystems and infrastructure.”
More than 3,700 excess deaths were recorded across France, the Netherlands, and Belgium—a number that is probably underestimated. Twenty US states recorded temperatures above 100°F (38°C) during a punishing heat dome that marred Fourth of July celebrations last week, causing at least dozens more deaths and millions of emergency room visits.
Ongoing fire dangers
An enormous heat dome is also forecast to expand over the US west and into the central plains this week, threatening more stifling conditions. “By Sunday and Monday, we start to see some eyebrow-raising temperatures,” Swain said, adding that heat records could be set in swaths of the interior west, with several states bracing for heat pushing past 100°F. This could increase fire dangers in the drought-stricken region. On Thursday, firefighters were battling 38 large wildfires across the country. More than 3.4 million acres (1.4 million hectares) have already burned in the US this year.
