Data from Acled and the Global Terrorism Index reveals that after a brief period of improvement, insecurity in Nigeria has worsened significantly. With general elections less than a year away, the crisis is under increasing scrutiny both domestically and internationally.
Governance Vacuum as a Driver
Experts identify a governance vacuum across much of the country as the primary long-term driver of insecurity. Although Nigeria is a federation of 36 states and 774 local government councils, power is heavily centralized at the federal level. Resources trickle down to states in limited quantities and are distributed in even smaller amounts to local councils, largely at governors' discretion. Consequently, vast areas are considered ungoverned or under-governed spaces, where non-state actors motivated by extremist ideology, economic grievances, political marginalization, or ethnic tensions can move freely, recruit, and plan attacks.
Security Apparatus Stretched Thin
The situation is exacerbated by Nigeria's thinly stretched security apparatus. The military, with about 230,000 personnel, is one of Africa's largest but is fighting insurgencies on multiple fronts in the north and a secessionist movement in the southeast. The police force of around 370,000 officers translates to one officer per 600 citizens, far below the UN-recommended ratio of one per 450. In many communities outside major cities, the only government presence is an abandoned police post, a dilapidated primary healthcare center, or a barely functioning primary school.
International Interventions and Ongoing Violence
On Saturday, the US and Nigeria announced a joint operation that killed Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, the second-in-command of Islamic State globally, in Nigeria's northeast. The US also targeted extremist militants in the northwestern state of Sokoto late last year, and in February, about 100 US soldiers arrived to advise Nigeria's military. However, these strikes and deployments have done little to stem the rising tide of violence.
Data Sources and Methodology
Data defining the Sahel geographic boundaries is provided by AtlaSahel. Political violence maps are based on a Guardian analysis of Acled conflict data. Charts data is taken from the Global Terrorism Index 2026 report.
