Multiple Australian states are at risk of flash flooding on Thursday, with severe weather warnings issued in New South Wales, Queensland, and Tasmania. The wet weather is being driven by a broad low-pressure trough that has drawn in tropical moisture across the region, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.
Severe Weather Warnings Across Eastern Australia
Ilana Cherny, a senior meteorologist at the Bureau of Meteorology, stated that the trough is causing a low-pressure system to develop, which will slowly move offshore of New South Wales during Friday. Heavy rainfall, with the potential to cause flash flooding, is forecast for parts of the NSW mid-north coast, the Hunter, and adjacent districts from Thursday afternoon.
Senior BoM meteorologist Jonathan How added that the low-pressure system is expected to continue driving heavy rainfall on Friday. “We could see heavy falls and there is a possibility of flooding,” he said. Showers are expected to clear away from Sydney and the central coast by the middle of Friday.
Impact on Queensland and Tasmania
Heavy rainfall is also forecast for southern and southeastern parts of Queensland, including the Darling Downs, Wide Bay, and Burnett regions. Cherny warned of severe thunderstorms possible through to the Brisbane area and the southeast coast, with risks of damaging wind gusts and large hail. Brisbane recorded 43mm of rain by 8:30 am on Thursday, following severe weather on Wednesday that temporarily cut access to many roads.
In Queensland’s parched southern interior and Darling Downs, significant rainfall totals were recorded. The highest total in the 24 hours to 7 am on Thursday was 88mm at Tindarra on Bungil Creek, near Roma in the state’s central west, bringing good news for local farmers.
In Tasmania, flood warnings are in place for the St Paul’s River and the South Esk River. Eastern parts of the state saw rainfall totals over 100mm, with 251mm recorded at Gray.
Outlook for the Weekend and Beyond
The rainfall is expected to ease over the weekend as the low-pressure system moves offshore, but Cherny noted that hazardous surf could redevelop up the east coast. From Friday evening, a broad ridge of high pressure will maintain mostly mild and dry conditions across northern Australia, according to How.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s latest long-range forecast, released Thursday afternoon, indicates that while late autumn rain in the east and west could ease recent dry conditions for some areas, rainfall is likely to be below average for much of Australia over winter. Most agricultural regions in the south had an early autumn break in March, but autumn break rainfall is yet to arrive in a few areas, including central Victoria.
Climatologist David Wilson noted that many sites had their highest May temperatures on record, including Hobart, which recorded a high of 26.9°C on 1 May—its highest temperature for the month since records began in 1882.
Climate Crisis Exacerbates Extreme Weather
The climate crisis is making Australia more vulnerable to extreme weather and natural disasters, including intense rainfall. For each 1°C of warming, the atmosphere can hold 7% more moisture. Rainfall intensities can be greater than this because, as raindrops form, they also release energy into a system.
Additionally, NRMA roadside assistance employees in Canberra, Sydney, Newcastle, and Wollongong began a 24-hour strike over pay and conditions, expected to end at midnight.
