With heatwaves gripping much of the world, some still deny human-caused climate change. The Guardian consulted Prof Ed Hawkins, University of Reading climate scientist and inventor of the climate stripes graphic, to address common misconceptions.
Myth: Heatwaves Are Just the New Normal
Hawkins explains that the warmest 10 years on record all occurred in the past decade. While global average temperature has risen 1°C, extremes change faster: heatwaves in southern England are now 3°C hotter. This is not a normal we can adapt to; future temperatures will make today seem cool.
Myth: Scientists Disagree on Human Cause
Hawkins states unequivocally: global warming is caused by human activities, primarily burning fossil fuels. Every heatwave is hotter than it would have been without greenhouse gas emissions. There is no scientific doubt.
Myth: Uncertainty Means Room for Doubt
The physics is simple: increasing greenhouse gases warms the climate. This has been known since the 1850s, with the first quantification in the 1890s. In 1938, Guy Callendar showed the world warmed 0.3°C due to CO2 from coal. Evidence is now overwhelming.
Myth: Heatwaves Are Caused by El Niño
Natural weather cycles like El Niño have always existed, but climate change makes their consequences worse. The current El Niño just started and will peak around Christmas 2023, but heatwaves are already severe due to a warmer baseline.
Myth: Earth's Orbit Is Responsible
Orbital changes affect climate over tens of thousands of years. At the start of the Industrial Revolution, Earth was on a slightly cooler path. The rapid warming since then is due to fossil fuel burning, not orbit.
Myth: 1976 Heatwave Was Similar
In 1976, northern Europe was an isolated hotspot; June 2022 was 2°C hotter in the UK and shattered records across Europe. The 1976 heatwave caused 250 extra deaths per day. In today's hotter world, a similar pattern would be more dangerous.
Myth: No Link Between Climate Change and Extreme Events
Climate change doesn't cause weather patterns but amplifies their severity. Attribution studies consistently show heatwaves are hotter due to human activities. Different methods may vary slightly but agree on the big picture.
Myth: Records Are Too Short to Show Trends
Temperature records date to the early 1800s, clearly showing warming. The last time Earth was this hot was 125,000 years ago. Ice cores reveal CO2 levels now exceed anything in hundreds of thousands of years, mainly from fossil fuels and deforestation.
Myth: Heatwaves Are Just Fun Beach Weather
Hawkins notes that vulnerable groups—elderly, children, hospital patients, workers—suffer greatly. Even fit people are at risk in extreme heat. Media should balance images of beaches with serious risks.
Myth: UK Should Cope Like Hotter Countries
British infrastructure was built for a cooler climate: homes retain heat, lack air conditioning and shutters. Adaptation is needed to avoid severe consequences.
Myth: Heat Warnings Are Government Overreach
Warnings save lives. The 2003 heatwave killed 40,000–70,000 in Europe. Since then, better warnings and advice (drink water, keep curtains shut) have reduced excess deaths despite rising temperatures.
Myth: CO2 Is Plant Food, Boosting Yields
While some plants grow better in high CO2 under ideal conditions, real-world harvests suffer from heat, drought, and changed rainfall patterns. We are at the mercy of weather.
Myth: It's Too Late to Act
Hawkins emphasizes it's never too late. Human actions caused the problem, so we can solve it. Achieving net zero emissions will stabilize the climate and stop further worsening. The choice is ours for future generations.
