University or Trade? The Dilemma Facing Today's Youth in a Shifting Job Market
In recent months, I visited my former university to speak with prospective sixth-form and college students about pursuing degrees in the arts and their potential career outcomes. The audience consisted of teenagers from underrepresented backgrounds, each displaying a clear glint of ambition and a desire to improve their circumstances. After the talk, they proudly showed me their LinkedIn profiles, already showcasing their talents to future employers. I anticipated questions about the relative value of arts versus Stem degrees, but I was taken aback by a more fundamental inquiry: whether attending university is even worthwhile anymore.
The Erosion of University as a Social Mobility Tool
This question persists as the graduate recruitment crisis and overwhelming student debt create a narrative of diminishing returns. Those of us who interact regularly with young people are increasingly questioning whether we can, in good faith, encourage them to pursue higher education. The available options often seem like dubious promises, leading many youths to feel disillusioned and misled.
Historically, university was viewed as a reliable engine for social mobility. This philosophy was championed under New Labour, with former Prime Minister Tony Blair announcing in 1999 his goal for "50% of young adults entering higher education in the next century," a significant increase from the 20% rate in 1990. The concept was straightforward: a knowledge-based economy would generate future jobs, and it was the nation's responsibility to prepare young people accordingly. A more skilled workforce would enhance global competitiveness, spur economic growth, and provide a clear pathway for working-class youth to ascend into the middle class.
The Harsh Reality of Today's Job Market
However, the future has arrived, and the promised jobs have not materialized. University participation has indeed risen, with England achieving the 50% target for those under 30 in the 2017/18 academic year. Yet, professional opportunities have not kept pace, evidenced by what is described as the worst graduate job market "in a generation." Artificial intelligence threatens entry-level positions, and uncertainty looms large. Notably, major accounting firms like Deloitte, EY, PwC, and KPMG have reduced their graduate recruitment numbers. The prospective students I met expressed justified skepticism. While I could share my own career path and those of my peers, it was evident to them that even with brightness and ambition, they might face an impenetrable job market.
The Rise of Trades as an Alternative Path
An emerging consensus suggests that university enrollment should decrease, with nearly half of the British public believing too many people attend. One proposed solution is for young people to learn trades instead, as computers cannot fix plumbing or wire houses. Suella Braverman, Reform UK's education spokesperson, advocates for overturning Blair's target, suggesting 50% of youth should enter trades instead. This shift could lead to a so-called blue-collar revolution driven by AI advancements.
Some who have already chosen this path find success amusing. Joshua King, a London-based electrician who promotes trades over university on TikTok, explains that despite good grades, he opted for a trade to gain practical experience and skills. He notes an increasing number of students and graduates seeking his job advice, stating, "People feel like it's more achievable to go down that route and make good money."
Social Stigma and Mixed Messages
Encouraging young people to learn trades is not without challenges. Not all will be interested in such careers, and it's important to acknowledge that these roles often lack the same social esteem. King shares that he still faces judgmental looks from white-collar workers on trains while wearing scruffy work trousers. Thus, society sends mixed signals: pursue university and incur debt, or become a plumber and face condescension.
Additionally, some blue-collar jobs are at risk from automation. As highlighted by the Financial Times, there is little evidence that a "blue-collar boom" will reverse the long-term decline of traditional skilled manual jobs. Data still favors university for prosperity: in 2024, 87.6% of working-age graduates in England were employed compared to 68% of non-graduates, with median nominal salaries of £42,000 versus £30,500, though the graduate earnings premium has declined in Britain.
The Enduring Value of Degrees
The notion that university degrees are becoming irrelevant to employers is often exaggerated. According to Felicity Halstead, founder and CEO of GoodWork, a charity assisting underrepresented youth in navigating the job market, degrees still serve as a filtering mechanism among other factors. She recalls a young person who, despite having comparable computer science knowledge to summer interns at a tech company, was disadvantaged because all interns held degrees.
There is a genuine risk that degrees could become accessible only to those with family wealth and security. This would deter young people with educational potential but lacking status or financial resources, further advantaging the already privileged in securing competitive roles.
Personal Stories and Broader Implications
Adrian, a friend of mine, missed the chance to attend university as a teenager due to his background but knew he was capable. Without a degree, he felt excluded from professional jobs and confined to customer-facing roles. Later, as a mature student at a Russell Group university, he graduated with first-class honors and now works in policy. He reflects, "Imagine if I internalized the message that 'university isn't for someone like you'? I never would've been able to study, stretch my intellectual capacities, and develop research skills. There are many kids in the same position."
Higher education offers young people the opportunity to deeply engage with subjects, live independently, and better understand themselves. It would be a mistake to conclude that since university no longer guarantees employment, it is entirely worthless. While it may seem unfashionable or even irresponsible to advocate for personal enrichment, we must avoid hastily encouraging or discouraging paths based on short-term labor market forecasts and an increasingly unpredictable future.
