More than half of published novelists in the United Kingdom believe artificial intelligence could eventually make their work obsolete, according to a groundbreaking study from the University of Cambridge.
The research, conducted for the university's Minderoo Centre for Technology and Democracy, reveals widespread anxiety about AI's rapid incursion into the literary world, with many authors already experiencing financial consequences.
Widespread Concerns About Literary Future
The comprehensive survey gathered responses from 258 published novelists and 74 industry professionals including editors and literary agents. The findings paint a concerning picture for the future of human-authored fiction.
Exactly 51% of participating novelists stated they believe AI is likely to completely replace their work in the coming years. Many reported that their existing books had already been used without permission to train large language models, the technology behind popular AI systems.
The financial impact is already being felt across the industry. More than a third (39%) of authors surveyed reported that their income has decreased as a direct result of generative AI technology. An overwhelming majority expect their earnings to decline further as AI becomes more sophisticated.
Market Flooding and Identity Theft
Romance authors emerged as the most vulnerable to displacement by AI tools currently capable of producing long-form fiction, closely followed by thriller and crime writers. These genres appear particularly susceptible to automation given their formulaic structures.
Many respondents described an increasingly crowded marketplace flooded with AI-generated books. Some authors reported discovering titles listed for sale online under their name that they had never written, indicating serious issues with content attribution and intellectual property protection.
Others noted the appearance of reviews that seemed to be AI-generated, containing confused character descriptions or incorrect plot details. Authors fear these automated reviews could significantly damage sales of legitimate human-written works.
Dr Clementine Collett, the report's author, explained: "There is widespread concern from novelists that generative AI trained on vast amounts of fiction will undermine the value of writing and compete with human novelists."
"Many novelists felt uncertain there will be an appetite for complex, long-form writing in years to come. Novels contribute more than we can imagine to our society, culture, and to the lives of individuals," she added.
Industry Voices and Copyright Concerns
Tracy Chevalier, acclaimed author of Girl With a Pearl Earring, expressed concerns about profit-driven publishing decisions. "I worry that an industry driven mainly by profit will be tempted to use AI more and more to generate books," she stated.
"If it is cheaper to produce novels using AI publishers will almost inevitably choose to publish them. And if they are priced cheaper than human-made books, readers are likely to buy them, the way we buy machine-made jumpers rather than the more expensive hand-knitted ones."
The research identified copyright protection as a recurring theme, with many authors feeling existing laws have failed to keep pace with technological advancement. Writers expressed strong desire for informed consent and proper payment when their work is used to train AI systems.
Authors are calling for greater transparency from technology companies and more robust government support. Many expressed frustration with the government's proposed "rights reservation" system that would allow AI firms to mine text unless authors explicitly opt out.
Despite these concerns, the study found that attitudes toward AI weren't entirely negative. Approximately one-third of novelists reported using AI for tasks such as research and information gathering. However, nearly all participants strongly opposed AI being used to write complete novels or even substantial passages of text.
The report comes during heightened scrutiny of AI-generated content on major online retailers like Amazon. Experts have described these platforms as a "wild west" due to insufficient regulation of AI-produced books.
This research emerges at a moment of particular tension between authors and AI companies. In September, Anthropic agreed to pay $1.5 billion (£1.1 billion) to authors who accused the company of using pirated copies of their works to train its chatbot.
Authors fear that AI may further weaken the deep human connection between writers and readers, particularly concerning given that reading for pleasure has reached historically low levels among children. Only one-third of UK children now report enjoying reading in their free time, the lowest level recorded in two decades.
