Millions of Australians are poised to hit the shops on Boxing Day, with new data predicting one in three will participate in the post-Christmas sales frenzy. Shoppers across the country are expected to spend a colossal $3.832 billion in the week leading up to New Year's Eve.
Spending Surge and Regulatory Warnings
According to forecasts from the Australian Retailers Association (ARA) and Roy Morgan, spending on Boxing Day alone is set to reach $1.6 billion, marking a 4.3% increase compared to 2024. The total for the post-Christmas week represents a 4.4% rise year-on-year.
However, the spending spree comes with a stern warning from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC). Deputy chair Catriona Lowe urged consumers to scrutinise final prices rather than advertised discounts. "We are concerned that despite many warnings, some retailers are still using a range of tactics to misrepresent the size or scope of discounts and the duration of sales to consumers," she stated.
The regulator has already written to several major retailers following a Black Friday investigation that uncovered potentially misleading strategies, including the use of fake countdown timers.
Key Sectors and Consumer Sentiment
Household goods and fashion are tipped to dominate the sales, with projected takings of $476 million and $216 million respectively on Boxing Day. Department stores are also anticipating a boost, with sales expected to grow by 5.1% to $123 million.
Chris Rodwell, chief executive of the ARA, attributed the forecast growth to the "resilience" of the retail sector and the "enduring appeal of Boxing Day as a premier discount event." This sentiment was echoed by retail expert Professor Gary Mortimer from Queensland University of Technology, who noted an "element of tradition" keeps the sales popular even when confidence is low.
Despite the predicted retail boom, overall consumer confidence remains subdued. The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating fell to 81.5 in mid-December, sitting below both the previous year's level and the 2025 weekly average. Economists point to the risk of further interest rate rises and soft labour market figures as key concerns stifling household sentiment.
Cautious Spending in an Uncertain Economy
KPMG chief economist Brendan Rynne suggested that economic uncertainty is causing people to limit discretionary spending to major sales events. "[It] doesn't mean people aren't spending money, they're just being more cautious about how they're spending money," he explained. He added that strong Boxing Day sales may come at the cost of more moderate growth throughout the rest of the year.
This caution exists alongside official data showing household spending increased by 1.3% in October month-on-month and 5.6% compared to October 2024. Rynne noted that high employment and inflationary price rises could drive spending figures even when confidence is low.
As shoppers prepare to hunt for bargains, the clear message from regulators is to look beyond the flashy promotions and assess the true value of every purchase during the Boxing Day sales period.
