In the weeks leading up to the New York City mayoral election, a stark narrative was pushed by conservative voices: a victory for democratic socialist candidate Zohran Mamdani would trigger a mass departure of the city's wealthiest residents. The warnings, amplified by outlets like the New York Post, predicted a ghost-town Manhattan as millionaires fled to lower-tax states like Florida and Texas to avoid his proposed tax increases.
The Reality Check: Property Data Tells a Different Story
However, more than a month after Mamdani's historic win, the predicted exodus has failed to materialise. In fact, the evidence points in the opposite direction. Signed contracts for Manhattan homes priced above $4 million actually increased in November compared to October, according to a report by Fortune magazine. This surge in the ultra-luxury segment outperformed the broader housing market.
Further contradicting the doom-laden forecasts, inventory in New York's luxury property sector fell by a significant 16% in October year-on-year. This decline in available high-end homes suggests stronger demand and a deeper commitment from affluent buyers to remain in the city, rather than a panicked sell-off.
Why the Wealthy Are Rooted to New York
Experts in migration and taxation argue that the fear of millionaire flight is largely a myth. Cristobal Young, a Cornell University sociology professor and author of The Myth of Millionaire Tax Flight, states that high-income individuals have remarkably low migration rates. "Rich people are not the folks who are, you know, pulling up camp and moving to a different part of the country. That's just not who's doing that," Young explained.
The stability of the wealthy is linked to strong personal and professional attachments. They are more likely to be married and have children, factors that data shows drastically reduce the likelihood of relocating. Their lives are deeply embedded in New York's unique ecosystem of business networks, cultural institutions, and social circles.
Young's research, which analysed the impact of similar tax policies in states like New Jersey and California, found little to no evidence of a mass exodus triggered by tax increases on top earners. While a handful of individuals on the margin may leave, the overwhelming majority—around 98%—stay and continue to contribute to the local economy.
A Global Perspective on Tax and Mobility
This pattern is not unique to the United States. Quentin Parrinello, policy director at the EU Tax Observatory, notes that studies in Scandinavia and France confirm that while mobility among high-net-worth individuals exists, it is "extremely limited." The complexities and costs of leaving a global hub like New York often outweigh the financial impact of a modest tax rise.
"Because they have cultural, family or economic ties to the area," Parrinello said. "Sometimes it's assets you cannot physically move, sometimes it's a network of contacts that create business opportunities, sometimes it's the attraction for the cultural offer in the area."
The initial alarmist rhetoric surrounding Mamdani's election appears disconnected from the tangible reality of where and how the city's affluent residents choose to live. The data indicates that for New York's wealthy, the city's unparalleled advantages continue to hold far greater weight than speculative fears over tax policy.
