Mass Flight Cancellations Signal Deepening China-Japan Diplomatic Crisis
Chinese travellers have cancelled an estimated 500,000 flights to Japan between November 15 and 17, marking one of the largest mass cancellations since the COVID-19 pandemic. This dramatic development comes amid escalating diplomatic tensions between the two Asian powers over Japan's stance on Taiwan.
The Trigger: Controversial Comments on Taiwan
The crisis erupted after Japan's Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, stated that her country could become militarily involved if China attempted to invade Taiwan. She argued that an attack on Taiwan could signify an existential threat to Japan, permitting it to exercise "self-defence" despite Japan's postwar constitution forbidding the use of force to settle international disputes.
China's government responded with fury, issuing warnings against Chinese travellers and students considering trips to Japan. The Chinese foreign ministry explicitly condemned Takaichi's remarks, demanding their withdrawal - a demand that Tokyo has so far refused.
Economic Fallout and Business Concerns
The travel cancellations represent just one aspect of growing economic countermeasures. At least seven Chinese airlines, including the three state carriers, began offering free cancellations for Japan-bound flights. Sichuan Airlines cancelled all flights between Chengdu and Sapporo from January until late March, while budget carrier Spring Airlines cancelled "multiple" Japan flights, both citing "company planning reasons".
According to air travel analyst Hanming Li, the scale of cancellations is unprecedented in recent years, though he noted the Sino-Japan market represents only a small portion of China's overall aviation industry. "It is not a huge loss for airlines because Sino-Japan market is small when comparing to the whole domestic and international market," Li told The Guardian.
The economic impact has already reverberated through Japanese markets, with shares in Japanese retail and travel companies slumping on Monday in response to the measures. The situation has alarmed Japanese business groups, with industry leaders meeting Takaichi to urge de-escalation.
Yoshinobu Tsutsui, chair of Japan's largest business lobby Keidanren, emphasised that "political stability is a prerequisite for economic exchange" during a press briefing.
Broader Cultural and Economic Implications
The tensions extend beyond aviation, with multiple cultural and economic exchanges being affected:
- Chinese travel agencies have stopped processing individual visa applications for Japan
- Local-level Japan-China cross-cultural events have been cancelled
- Film distributors have indefinitely postponed screening at least two Japanese films in China
- Box office sales for the Japanese animation "Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle" have slumped
Chinese state broadcaster CCTV attributed the declining interest in Japanese films to "strong dissatisfaction from Chinese audiences" with Takaichi's comments.
Diplomatic Efforts and Security Concerns
In response to the escalating situation, Japan dispatched senior foreign ministry official Masaaki Kanai to Beijing for talks with his Chinese counterpart, Liu Jinsong. However, Tokyo has maintained its position, with the Japanese government stating that its policy on Taiwan remains unchanged.
The security implications are significant. While the United States is Taiwan's primary supporter but not obliged to defend it, the US-Japan security treaty commits both countries to defend each other if one is attacked in Japanese territory. This means Japanese involvement in a Taiwan conflict would almost guarantee US involvement.
Japan has warned its citizens in China to take extra safety precautions, including avoiding crowded places, in response to surging anti-Japanese sentiment in Chinese media. The Japanese embassy in Beijing has advised citizens not to travel alone and to exercise particular caution when travelling with children.
According to Japan's foreign ministry, just over 100,000 Japanese nationals were living in China in 2023, while China represents Japan's second-largest tourism market and the primary source of international students, with approximately 120,000 Chinese students studying in Japan last year.
The situation continues to develop as both nations navigate the delicate balance between economic interdependence and political sovereignty in one of Asia's most important bilateral relationships.
