Trump's Growing Stranglehold Over European Energy Supply Revealed in New Analysis
A comprehensive study has exposed how Donald Trump has developed a significant stranglehold over European Union and United Kingdom energy supplies, with the United States now accounting for a dominant 59% of all LNG imports to the EU bloc. This dramatic shift in energy dependency has emerged as European nations swapped their previous reliance on Russian pipeline gas for American liquified natural gas shipments following the Ukraine conflict and subsequent sanctions.
From Russian Pipelines to American LNG Tankers
The research paper, collaboratively authored by three prominent European think tanks including The Hague's Clingendael Institute, Berlin's Ecologic Institute, and the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, reveals startling statistics about Europe's transformed energy landscape. Where Russian pipeline gas constituted 60% of European Economic Area imports in 2019, this share has plummeted to just 8% by 2025. Meanwhile, imports of US LNG to the EEA have skyrocketed by 485% compared to 2019 levels, with a particularly sharp 61% increase recorded in 2025 alone.
The European Economic Area, comprising the 27 EU member states plus Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway, now finds itself in a precarious position of dependency on American energy exports. This development carries substantial risk according to researchers, particularly as President Trump has shifted toward what the paper describes as "a more explicitly interest-driven, protectionist and ideologically charged approach" to international relations.
UK's Parallel Vulnerability Outside Single Market
The United Kingdom, despite its departure from the European single market, faces identical vulnerabilities according to the analysis. In 2024, the UK covered half of its gas demand through domestic production and one-third through imports from the EEA. However, for its remaining LNG requirements, shipments from the United States constituted a substantial 68% of total imports.
Raffaele Piria, the report's initiator and senior researcher at the Ecologic Institute, emphasized that "the UK is affected by exactly the same geopolitical and economic vulnerabilities as the European Economic Area, and in fact it is physically and economically fully integrated in the European gas grid and gas market."
Strategic Leverage and Energy Dominance
The Trump administration's November national security strategy paper explicitly framed energy exports as a mechanism for projecting American power, stating that the White House seeks "US energy dominance" which "when and where necessary – enables us to project power." This represents a significant departure from historical norms, where interference by US governments in gas markets to pressure European allies was previously considered unthinkable.
Professor Kacper Szulecki of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs contextualized the current situation: "The US has tried a similar approach in the 1980s under Ronald Reagan, attempting to talk European partners out of gas trade with the USSR. But back then there was no technology for liquefying natural gas, so Europe had no alternative but Russian pipeline gas."
Immediate Risks and Long-Term Solutions
The study identifies immediate dangers for European consumers, particularly regarding potential price increases. Professor Szulecki warned: "At the moment, gas reserves in the EU are very low, the lowest in years, and lower than at the outset of the war in Ukraine. If we have a cold winter and tensions with the US, leading to further price increases and reserve depletion, we might see a really dramatic energy crisis in the coming months."
Recent tensions have already manifested through Trump's threats to impose tariffs on European allies unless they acquiesce to his proposed acquisition of Greenland, which remains part of Denmark – both an EU member state and NATO ally. While the EU considers retaliatory trade measures, policymakers in Brussels acknowledge there is currently "no real alternative to the gas from the US."
The paper concludes that Europe must recognize how "energy – particularly gas – exports increasingly function as a tool of strategic leverage" and accelerate its transition toward "an efficient and modern energy system based on indigenous renewable sources" as a medium to long-term solution to this strategic vulnerability.
