A stark warning about the vulnerability of Britain's gas supplies was conspicuously absent from the government's recent Budget Day announcements, a new report has revealed.
Omitted Warnings and Hidden Risks
The National Infrastructure Commission (NIC), the government's official infrastructure advisor, submitted a report ahead of the Autumn Statement which contained a significant alert. It stated that the UK's gas security margin could fall to "effectively zero" for several days during a severe winter. This critical finding, however, was not included in the official documents published by the Treasury on Budget Day.
The NIC's analysis, dated November 2025, highlighted a precarious situation. It pointed out that the closure of the UK's largest gas storage facility, Rough, in 2017 has left the nation increasingly reliant on flexible imports, particularly via pipelines from Norway and shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG). The report warned that during an extreme cold snap coinciding with supply disruptions in Europe, the country's buffer could be completely exhausted.
The Budget Day Omission
Despite this grave assessment being delivered to ministers, the Treasury's published Green Book—which outlines the evidence base for fiscal decisions—made no mention of the looming gas security crisis. Instead, it presented a more sanitised summary of the NIC's work, focusing on broader energy system challenges without the specific, alarming detail of a potential zero-margin scenario.
This omission has raised serious questions about transparency and the government's willingness to confront difficult truths in the public domain. The timing is particularly sensitive, as households and businesses continue to grapple with high energy costs and volatility in global markets.
Implications for UK Energy Policy
The buried report underscores a fundamental tension in UK energy policy. The nation's commitment to reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 necessitates a move away from fossil fuels like gas. However, in the interim, gas remains a cornerstone of heating for millions of homes and a vital backup for renewable electricity generation when the wind doesn't blow or the sun doesn't shine.
The NIC's warning suggests the transition period is fraught with risk. The lack of substantial domestic storage capacity means the UK is more exposed than some European neighbours to short-term price spikes and supply shortages. Experts argue that acknowledging this vulnerability is the first step towards managing it, whether through strategic reserve policies, demand-reduction schemes, or accelerated investment in alternatives like heat pumps and hydrogen.
By failing to highlight the NIC's stark warning in its Budget documentation, the government has sidestepped a crucial public debate on how to ensure energy security during the green transition. The report serves as a reminder that while long-term climate goals are essential, immediate and tangible risks to the stability of energy supply cannot be ignored or buried in the small print.
